> Hi Simon, I am wondering why and how you think our
> civilization is or will collapse? I would suggest
> our collapsing is overwhelming predicted and still
> keeps on going.
In terms of 'why', I think the two words that cover it best are 'greed' and 'ignorance'. We have the means to deal with almost any of the problems that could threaten the stability or survival of human civilization, but whether we will take the sensible and timely steps to ensure it is a moot point. I'm a bit wary of doomsterism, as in almost every age people have been worried about the end of the world (in the 19th century people were worried about the world freezing over) and mostly we've either been wrong or found a way to muddle through. There are lots of potential 'how's. Global warming, collapse of the food chain, pollution, nuclear war -- though I think that unlikely -- and even natural disasters (disease, a massive volcanic eruption, or a meteor strike). But then we are better placed to cope than the dinosaurs were...
I have a section in my book about "The Great Stink" which talks about the way a decision was finally made at the last minute to sort out the sanitation for a grossly overpopulated London after the Thames had essentially become an open sewer in the mid-19th century. We're sort of at that point with the whole planet right now. Churchill once said of Americans that "They always do the right thing, but only after all the other options have been exhausted." That's a pretty human trait, I suspect. Will we fail at the last fence? Is that the answer to the Fermi Paradox, that ultimately any 'advanced' civilization fouls its nest before it's able to take things to the next stage? Can we escape the conclusion, as my mentor Frank Zappa once sardonically put it, that "It's probably God's will / That civilization will grind to a standstill"?
I like to remain optimistic, even so. It's better than the alternative. If things are going to end badly anyway, it's still going to be better to spend your waning days feeling positive and trying to do something rather than feeling bad about it in advance as well. It may never happen, after all. We may find a way to rise above. That's the ultimate hope of my book.