It is one thing to believe a carved image looks like one thing or another. That much can never be "debunked".
What can be debunked, is if one says that the interpretation is the right one AND statistically significant.
My guess, for now, is that Martin and his colleague have come up with a fairly reasonable way of framing their interpretation, so that its appearance at GT is -arguably- in a 1 in 100 million level of rarity, or thereabouts.
If they are clear about crunching numbers based on their interpretation, I still have no issue. But if they downplay the latter, or ignore the latter - the relativity if their interpretation -and say only that GT appears as it does against a 1 in 100 million chance expectation, then there is a problem that is debunkable.
The essay you reminded me of, Corpuscles,showed a table which illustrates the greater reality, which is that one already sees multiple interpretations of pillar 43, by serious researchers, with a high degree of knowledge regarding which images might make historical sense.
Four researchers, four differing interpretations.
The only way to end such a Factorial-related impasse, is by imposing consensus order, if that can be done in a legit way. And so, I said that Martin would be fully vindicated if, down the line, we began finding evidence of an alt zodiac that accorded perfectly with his interpretation. We would have to all go along because he would have provided an interface whose existence cannot be denied.
Only then, imo, can we hope to provide a reasonable probability analysis. But the task doesn't end with the imposition of common agreement.
For example, when I say that the 2nd, 3rd and 4th US presidents died on America's birthday, I have imposed common agreement, at least as far as reasonable persons are concerned, since there is so much evidence to support this claim.
And since there are 365 days in a year, it follows that this trifecta will occur about every 300 million years, if the average administration is six years, or every 50 million administrations....
If you think about it, this three-part event had only been possible since the third presidency, and it happened by the 5th administration - this outcome that shouldn't have been expected - according to the chance expectation - until around the 50 millionth presidency. A once-every-300 million years event that actually happened, on America's 55th birthday.
I see no way for anyone to argue that this was not a VERY improbable outcome, which to some will raise legit concerns about the chance interpretation. That would be my "thesis". However, in making such a conclusion I would still take care to comment further on the numbers...
The count I mention, must come down upon further scrutiny. For example, over 300 million years, its probably more likely that a president would be murdered on a July 4th than most other days...
Who knows how many of these kinds of reasonable scenarios we can come up with, upon further reflection? How much the odds will fall depends on further discussion. And so, while we should all agree that three presidents in a row died on July Fourth, we can still expect disagreement on how unlikely that outcome is.
Nonetheless, with the initial level of rarity being set so high, anyone saying that this outcome is normal, or based on subjective bias, etc, is probably going to have a very tall task convincing others of that-unless their audience is married to the notion that this outcome must be due to chance.
Bottom line, and since he hasnt explained himself, for now I'm thinking that Martin went too far, in assigning a 1-100 million number to his interpretation. Worse crimes have surely been committed. If this is indeed an error, I would hope that he owns up to that at some point, so we can focus on the others parts of his work that may expedite our understanding of GT, without being distracted by claims that ought to have been removed.
Speaking of factorials (and in trying to ignore the hazards of writing with a cellphone) , I thought you might like this, Corpuscles...
There are 52! ways to shuffle a deck of cards.
That is 8.0658175... × 1067
Just shuffle a deck of cards and it is likely that you are the first person ever with that particular order.
Edited 7 time(s). Last edit at 13-Aug-19 01:39 by Poster Boy.