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Lol, your article got me wanting to finish the framing.

So, if my approach is not unreasonable, to continue with the King cluster...

Adding to the first two discussed, Andy King (1/600 at least) and King Power company owning Leicester city (1/0 at least):

As far as this layman can tell, this seems like the most straightforward element: The odds that the owner of this franchise, or the 'king' (ceo) of the owning company, would have its birthday on the day of the turnaround game, is 1/365 .
'
Staying with the same formula, and the winning goal in LC's turnaround game extends the King theme three ways against a combined expectation of 2.1 million at least... 1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365

Then there's the fact that this was Andy King's 50th career goal for LC AND that LC was the only club he'd ever played for professionally. I'll close with thick thoughts on that.

The 50th goal was mentioned because we recognize 50 as special. If one were to say that every 50th goal would be comparable in this regard, his 100th, 150th etc, then I believe this 'hit' comes in at 1-in-50.

As for the latter consideration, I might try this, Ray: Andy King was in his tenth professional year when he scored this goal. How many top-flight players, who played ten or more years, played their entire first ten years of pro soccer with the same club, as Andy King did. Again I will set the bar ridiculously low, assuming that we can empirically determine that at least 1 in 10 players stayed with the same club for their first decade.

At [1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365 x 1/50 x 1/10] our cluster, which is highly conservative, is looking like a 1 in 1 billion kind of outcome.

Aside from this being surprisingly normal, Ray, I would only add this. One wrench I see is that there are other ways to make comparable clusters. For example, what if the subsequent "King" associations were replaced by similar ones based on "Richard"? Surely, since this an English story, it would have been noted, had this been Andy King's 66th goal. Now, King's 50th is seen to be one of at least two potentially meaningful, quite comparable amounts - and our 1-in-50 sketch number is seen to be something less...

One can quite easily envision somewhat comparable scenarios. I try to keep mindful of that. It's an important exercise in this kind of study, I believe. But then again, there's a difference between that approach and actually turning to random goals, to see what they might display in reality.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03-Oct-18 01:43 by Poster Boy.

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Subject Views Written By Posted
synchronicity explained? 2401 jazzmumbles 22-Sep-18 00:09
Re: synchronicity explained? 467 D-Archer 22-Sep-18 18:59
Re: synchronicity explained? 421 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 11:53
Re: synchronicity explained? 420 D-Archer 24-Sep-18 12:47
Re: synchronicity explained? 411 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 414 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 04:57
Re: synchronicity explained? 405 D-Archer 26-Sep-18 08:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 403 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 12:01
Re: synchronicity explained? 401 Eddie Larry 26-Sep-18 14:10
Re: synchronicity explained? 388 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 16:16
Re: synchronicity explained? 374 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 16:28
Re: synchronicity explained? 390 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 17:00
Re: synchronicity explained? 405 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 19:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 369 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 20:30
show us more "patterns" like this... 405 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 16:58
Re: synchronicity explained? 365 Susan Doris 28-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 351 PB Bytes 28-Sep-18 15:25
Re: synchronicity explained? 350 Eddie Larry 28-Sep-18 20:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 342 PB Bytes 28-Sep-18 21:07
Re: synchronicity explained? 358 Susan Doris 29-Sep-18 05:40
The statistics of synchronicities--in science 340 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 14:12
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 335 PB Bytes 29-Sep-18 15:56
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 332 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 19:32
Questions on synchronicities and statistical science 351 PB Bytes 30-Sep-18 18:13
Some possibilities 334 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 09:53
Deconstructing one sync. 350 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 18:08
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 329 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 19:09
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 332 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 20:24
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 345 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 00:41
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 355 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 02:34
Research design 335 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 04:12
Re: Research design 335 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 04:18
Framing.. Research design 339 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 20:50
Re: Framing.. Research design 328 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 23:21
Re: Framing.. Research design 360 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 04:56
a study of coincidences 350 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 13:24
Re: a study of coincidences 328 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 15:25
Your scepticism antennae 340 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 19:33
Re: Framing.. Research design 350 PB Bytes 03-Oct-18 16:16
Re: Framing.. Research design 359 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 07:17
Re: Framing.. Research design 338 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 15:10
Re: Framing.. Research design 344 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 17:07
Re: Framing.. Research design 338 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 17:37
true randomness 346 drrayeye 04-Oct-18 17:53
Re: true randomness 546 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 19:26
a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 343 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 21:28
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 348 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 05:06
I didn't write this post for you, 344 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 06:05
Re: I didn't write this post for you, 339 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 13:47
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 352 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 08:50
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 347 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 10:27
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 354 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 14:07
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 348 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 15:10
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 346 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 17:09
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 354 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 19:05
Scientific thinking 371 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 16:43
Re: synchronicity explained? 454 jazzmumbles 26-Sep-18 15:24


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