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Lol, your article got me wanting to finish the framing.

So, if my approach is not unreasonable, to continue with the King cluster...

Adding to the first two discussed, Andy King (1/600 at least) and King Power company owning Leicester city (1/0 at least):

As far as this layman can tell, this seems like the most straightforward element: The odds that the owner of this franchise, or the 'king' (ceo) of the owning company, would have its birthday on the day of the turnaround game, is 1/365 .
Staying with the same formula, and the winning goal in LC's turnaround game extends the King theme three ways against a combined expectation of 2.1 million at least... 1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365

Then there's the fact that this was Andy King's 50th career goal for LC AND that LC was the only club he'd ever played for professionally. I'll close with thick thoughts on that.

The 50th goal was mentioned because we recognize 50 as special. If one were to say that every 50th goal would be comparable in this regard, his 100th, 150th etc, then I believe this 'hit' comes in at 1-in-50.

As for the latter consideration, I might try this, Ray: Andy King was in his tenth professional year when he scored this goal. How many top-flight players, who played ten or more years, played their entire first ten years of pro soccer with the same club, as Andy King did. Again I will set the bar ridiculously low, assuming that we can empirically determine that at least 1 in 10 players stayed with the same club for their first decade.

At [1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365 x 1/50 x 1/10] our cluster, which is highly conservative, is looking like a 1 in 1 billion kind of outcome.

Aside from this being surprisingly normal, Ray, I would only add this. One wrench I see is that there are other ways to make comparable clusters. For example, what if the subsequent "King" associations were replaced by similar ones based on "Richard"? Surely, since this an English story, it would have been noted, had this been Andy King's 66th goal. Now, King's 50th is seen to be one of at least two potentially meaningful, quite comparable amounts - and our 1-in-50 sketch number is seen to be something less...

One can quite easily envision somewhat comparable scenarios. I try to keep mindful of that. It's an important exercise in this kind of study, I believe. But then again, there's a difference between that approach and actually turning to random goals, to see what they might display in reality.


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03-Oct-18 01:43 by Poster Boy.

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synchronicity explained? 2284 jazzmumbles 22-Sep-18 00:09
Re: synchronicity explained? 430 D-Archer 22-Sep-18 18:59
Re: synchronicity explained? 391 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 11:53
Re: synchronicity explained? 373 D-Archer 24-Sep-18 12:47
Re: synchronicity explained? 374 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 375 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 04:57
Re: synchronicity explained? 363 D-Archer 26-Sep-18 08:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 365 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 12:01
Re: synchronicity explained? 369 Eddie Larry 26-Sep-18 14:10
Re: synchronicity explained? 352 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 16:16
Re: synchronicity explained? 338 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 16:28
Re: synchronicity explained? 347 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 17:00
Re: synchronicity explained? 366 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 19:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 332 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 20:30
show us more "patterns" like this... 373 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 16:58
Re: synchronicity explained? 335 Susan Doris 28-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 324 PB Bytes 28-Sep-18 15:25
Re: synchronicity explained? 322 Eddie Larry 28-Sep-18 20:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 315 PB Bytes 28-Sep-18 21:07
Re: synchronicity explained? 323 Susan Doris 29-Sep-18 05:40
The statistics of synchronicities--in science 308 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 14:12
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 309 PB Bytes 29-Sep-18 15:56
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 306 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 19:32
Questions on synchronicities and statistical science 319 PB Bytes 30-Sep-18 18:13
Some possibilities 304 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 09:53
Deconstructing one sync. 323 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 18:08
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 302 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 19:09
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 307 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 20:24
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 312 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 00:41
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 318 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 02:34
Research design 307 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 04:12
Re: Research design 300 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 04:18
Framing.. Research design 304 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 20:50
Re: Framing.. Research design 304 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 23:21
Re: Framing.. Research design 321 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 04:56
a study of coincidences 296 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 13:24
Re: a study of coincidences 300 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 15:25
Your scepticism antennae 313 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 19:33
Re: Framing.. Research design 316 PB Bytes 03-Oct-18 16:16
Re: Framing.. Research design 319 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 07:17
Re: Framing.. Research design 307 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 15:10
Re: Framing.. Research design 311 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 17:07
Re: Framing.. Research design 305 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 17:37
true randomness 320 drrayeye 04-Oct-18 17:53
Re: true randomness 502 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 19:26
a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 313 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 21:28
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 318 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 05:06
I didn't write this post for you, 310 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 06:05
Re: I didn't write this post for you, 307 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 13:47
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 310 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 08:50
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 310 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 10:27
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 320 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 14:07
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 317 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 15:10
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 319 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 17:09
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 312 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 19:05
Scientific thinking 332 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 16:43
Re: synchronicity explained? 376 jazzmumbles 26-Sep-18 15:24

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