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Lol, your article got me wanting to finish the framing.

So, if my approach is not unreasonable, to continue with the King cluster...

Adding to the first two discussed, Andy King (1/600 at least) and King Power company owning Leicester city (1/0 at least):

As far as this layman can tell, this seems like the most straightforward element: The odds that the owner of this franchise, or the 'king' (ceo) of the owning company, would have its birthday on the day of the turnaround game, is 1/365 .
Staying with the same formula, and the winning goal in LC's turnaround game extends the King theme three ways against a combined expectation of 2.1 million at least... 1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365

Then there's the fact that this was Andy King's 50th career goal for LC AND that LC was the only club he'd ever played for professionally. I'll close with thick thoughts on that.

The 50th goal was mentioned because we recognize 50 as special. If one were to say that every 50th goal would be comparable in this regard, his 100th, 150th etc, then I believe this 'hit' comes in at 1-in-50.

As for the latter consideration, I might try this, Ray: Andy King was in his tenth professional year when he scored this goal. How many top-flight players, who played ten or more years, played their entire first ten years of pro soccer with the same club, as Andy King did. Again I will set the bar ridiculously low, assuming that we can empirically determine that at least 1 in 10 players stayed with the same club for their first decade.

At [1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365 x 1/50 x 1/10] our cluster, which is highly conservative, is looking like a 1 in 1 billion kind of outcome.

Aside from this being surprisingly normal, Ray, I would only add this. One wrench I see is that there are other ways to make comparable clusters. For example, what if the subsequent "King" associations were replaced by similar ones based on "Richard"? Surely, since this an English story, it would have been noted, had this been Andy King's 66th goal. Now, King's 50th is seen to be one of at least two potentially meaningful, quite comparable amounts - and our 1-in-50 sketch number is seen to be something less...

One can quite easily envision somewhat comparable scenarios. I try to keep mindful of that. It's an important exercise in this kind of study, I believe. But then again, there's a difference between that approach and actually turning to random goals, to see what they might display in reality.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03-Oct-18 01:43 by Poster Boy.

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synchronicity explained? 2376 jazzmumbles 22-Sep-18 00:09
Re: synchronicity explained? 458 D-Archer 22-Sep-18 18:59
Re: synchronicity explained? 413 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 11:53
Re: synchronicity explained? 410 D-Archer 24-Sep-18 12:47
Re: synchronicity explained? 400 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 404 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 04:57
Re: synchronicity explained? 396 D-Archer 26-Sep-18 08:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 394 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 12:01
Re: synchronicity explained? 393 Eddie Larry 26-Sep-18 14:10
Re: synchronicity explained? 379 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 16:16
Re: synchronicity explained? 364 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 16:28
Re: synchronicity explained? 380 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 17:00
Re: synchronicity explained? 395 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 19:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 358 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 20:30
show us more "patterns" like this... 397 PB Bytes 27-Sep-18 16:58
Re: synchronicity explained? 356 Susan Doris 28-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 342 PB Bytes 28-Sep-18 15:25
Re: synchronicity explained? 341 Eddie Larry 28-Sep-18 20:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 332 PB Bytes 28-Sep-18 21:07
Re: synchronicity explained? 349 Susan Doris 29-Sep-18 05:40
The statistics of synchronicities--in science 331 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 14:12
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 326 PB Bytes 29-Sep-18 15:56
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 324 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 19:32
Questions on synchronicities and statistical science 342 PB Bytes 30-Sep-18 18:13
Some possibilities 324 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 09:53
Deconstructing one sync. 341 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 18:08
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 320 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 19:09
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 322 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 20:24
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 335 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 00:41
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 346 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 02:34
Research design 327 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 04:12
Re: Research design 326 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 04:18
Framing.. Research design 330 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 20:50
Re: Framing.. Research design 319 PB Bytes 02-Oct-18 23:21
Re: Framing.. Research design 351 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 04:56
a study of coincidences 316 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 13:24
Re: a study of coincidences 318 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 15:25
Your scepticism antennae 330 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 19:33
Re: Framing.. Research design 341 PB Bytes 03-Oct-18 16:16
Re: Framing.. Research design 351 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 07:17
Re: Framing.. Research design 330 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 15:10
Re: Framing.. Research design 335 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 17:07
Re: Framing.. Research design 328 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 17:37
true randomness 337 drrayeye 04-Oct-18 17:53
Re: true randomness 538 PB Bytes 04-Oct-18 19:26
a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 335 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 21:28
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 339 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 05:06
I didn't write this post for you, 335 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 06:05
Re: I didn't write this post for you, 330 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 13:47
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 343 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 08:50
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 336 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 10:27
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 346 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 14:07
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 338 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 15:10
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 337 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 17:09
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 345 PB Bytes 01-Oct-18 19:05
Scientific thinking 363 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 16:43
Re: synchronicity explained? 446 jazzmumbles 26-Sep-18 15:24

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