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Hi Paul, here is an analysis of recent bond moves by Bob Carlson:

“There are a lot of ways to measure the strong performance of long-term treasuries. The long-term U.S. government bond has had its best performance ever to this point in the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In addition, this month likely will end as the best monthly performance for the long bond since August 2011. And this is likely to be the 19th month, since 1987, in which long-term treasuries returned at least 10 percentage points more than the S&P 500.

The yield on the 30-year treasury declined below 2% and also below the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The latter hasn’t happened since March 2009. The only times the S&P 500 dividend yield has exceeded the 30-year treasury yield were this week and several times during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Historically, a period of strong outperformance by the long-term bond usually is followed by solid returns for stocks. But, historically, bond outperformance is associated with significant declines in stocks and recessions. Those conditions aren’t present now, so it’s not a good idea to count on a big, sustained bounce in stocks.

Instead, this decline in treasury yields means investors are convinced growth and inflation will be low for some time. It also represents a flight to safety as investors worry about trade conflicts and other geopolitical problems. “

Bob mentions weak growth and low inflation for the decline in bond prices. I would add the demographic aging of the world population as also one cause. As folks get older they spend less and try to conserve capital bynmoving from risk assets to bonds and bond substitutes. This aging is ramping up. Seniors are buying bonds, which paradoxically hurts their need for interest and dividends. However, that may be, it is about supply and demand, the governments do not want our money! Or they don’t want to pay for it! As the populations continue to age, interest rates will continue to decline and the Fed. reserve banks around the world will be lowering interest rates. Ours to! It is just a matter of time.

As a matter of policy, if I was the Pres, I would focus on the youth and family formation. If you have three kids - no taxes for twenty years or some such. I would help with student loans as well.

All the senior citizens I know are doing just fine, thus my focus is on the youth. Hope this helps.

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Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 1585 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 160 Warwick 21-Aug-19 16:47
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 175 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:56
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 167 OCaptain 21-Aug-19 17:27
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 157 Warwick 21-Aug-19 17:32
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 213 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 151 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:34
Blood Libel 163 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:03
Re: Blood Libel 177 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:14
Re: Blood Libel 172 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:39
Re: Blood Libel 146 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 15:56
Re: Blood Libel 154 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:08
Re: Blood Libel 145 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 16:15
Re: Blood Libel 120 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:26
Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 129 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 22:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 142 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 122 Eddie Larry 28-Aug-19 17:02
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 122 Aine 29-Aug-19 13:14
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 140 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 20:03
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 108 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 20:54
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 129 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 23:52
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 127 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:41
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 120 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 14:00
Recession Republicanism 126 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 14:33
Re: Recession Republicanism 121 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 18:39
Re: Recession Republicanism 116 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 19:09
Re: Recession Republicanism 106 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:23
Re: Recession Republicanismo 135 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 16:49
Re: Recession Republicanismo 108 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 116 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:13
Re: Recession Republicanismo 105 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 118 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:46
Re: Recession Republicanismo 121 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 14:05
Re: Recession Republicanismo 118 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:15
Re: Recession Republicanismo 106 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 15:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 118 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:35
Re: Recession Republicanismo 106 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 12:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 121 Eddie Larry 02-Sep-19 14:45
Re: Recession Republicanismo 101 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 20:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 130 Eddie Larry 03-Sep-19 00:06
Re: Recession Republicanismo 111 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 14:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 126 Aine 01-Sep-19 15:41
Re: Recession Republicanismo 119 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 22:59
Re: Recession Republicanismo 112 Aine 03-Sep-19 17:41
Automation 105 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 20:24
Re: Automation 129 Aine 03-Sep-19 22:20
Re: Recession Republicanismo 104 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 23:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 114 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:04
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 113 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 21:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 120 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:46
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 121 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:44
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 116 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 13:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 153 Nolondil 30-Aug-19 22:18
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 116 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 23:15
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 113 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 00:00
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 118 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:39
Re: Blood Libel 139 adequatedane 23-Aug-19 22:16
Re: Blood Libel 139 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:02
Re: Blood Libel 150 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 11:37
Re: Blood Libel 152 Aine 24-Aug-19 12:38
Re: Blood Libel 142 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 23:28
Re: Blood Libel 135 Aine 25-Aug-19 01:11
Re: Blood Libel 137 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 14:14
Re: Blood Libel 151 Aine 25-Aug-19 15:36
“American Factory” 136 Eddie Larry 25-Aug-19 15:45
Re: “American Factory” 138 Aine 25-Aug-19 16:35
Re: “American Factory” 146 PB Bytes 25-Aug-19 17:39
Re: “American Factory” 148 Aine 25-Aug-19 17:55
Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 132 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 17:24
Re: Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 161 Nolondil 25-Aug-19 22:46
Re: Blood Libel 195 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:17
Re: Blood Libel 152 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:10
Re: Blood Libel 143 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:26
Re: Blood Libel 180 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:06
Re: Blood Libel 152 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:23
Re: Blood Libel 186 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:27
Re: Blood Libel 131 OCaptain 26-Aug-19 10:36
Re: Blood Libel 103 Aine 26-Aug-19 22:30
Re: Blood Libel 143 OCaptain 27-Aug-19 02:20
Re: Blood Libel 119 Aine 27-Aug-19 13:22
Re: Blood Libel 138 Aine 28-Aug-19 00:05
Re: Blood Libel 111 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:21
Re: Blood Libel 129 Aine 28-Aug-19 16:13
I know, I know! 144 Warwick 28-Aug-19 16:16
Re: I know, I know! 136 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:06
Re: I know, I know! 117 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:21
Re: I know, I know! 114 Aine 29-Aug-19 16:38
Re: I know, I know! 122 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:59
Re: Blood Libel 108 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:05
Re: Blood Libel 112 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:20
Re: Blood Libel 131 drrayeye 26-Aug-19 22:57
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 150 Racho 21-Aug-19 19:26
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 147 Aine 21-Aug-19 19:31
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 186 Warwick 21-Aug-19 19:42
Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 141 Racho 21-Aug-19 20:13
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 144 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:05
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 126 Racho 21-Aug-19 22:48
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 150 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:52
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 149 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:14
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 137 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:17
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 137 Racho 21-Aug-19 18:41
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 138 Aine 21-Aug-19 18:48
25th Amendment 162 Nolondil 21-Aug-19 21:14
Re: 25th Amendment 127 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:55
Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 140 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 21:56
Re: Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 156 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:07
About what I expected 145 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 22:36
Re: About what I expected 133 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:42
Whose panties be bunched? 146 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:35
Hodgetwins vs Lee 127 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 02:33
Hodges easy 121 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:13
You can lead a horse to water . . . 119 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:11
Re: About what I expected 129 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:24
Re: About what I expected 142 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:30
Aines Normal Disinformation 144 adequatedane 21-Aug-19 23:46
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 140 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 143 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 12:20
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 114 Aine 22-Aug-19 12:45
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 119 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 19:36
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 119 Aine 22-Aug-19 22:21
Re: Aine Lies 129 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 22:54
Thomas's question: Is Donald really bonkers? 151 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 00:32
From the "pros", lul 142 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:43
Did it all for you 130 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 01:58
Visit an echo chamber? 126 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:21
I'm no mental health professional 129 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:14
Clearly 153 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 22:59
Mental health 116 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:34
Re: Mental health 154 Sirfiroth 23-Aug-19 16:32
Re: Mental health 143 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:57
CDC Mental health advice for cowboys 138 drrayeye 24-Aug-19 03:08
Re: About what I expected 160 OCaptain 22-Aug-19 12:28
zzzz 149 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 23:11
Talk to NASA and the IPCC 125 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:36
Re: Talk to NASA and the IPCC 188 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:48
Way better 136 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 08:35
Re: zzzz 130 OCaptain 23-Aug-19 11:35
But it's your faith?! 128 Buck 45 23-Aug-19 22:13
Re: But it's your faith?! 124 OCaptain 24-Aug-19 12:17
Denmark and Greenland 112 greengirl5 30-Aug-19 00:13
Re: Denmark and Greenland 128 Aine 30-Aug-19 00:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 167 Lee McGiffen 22-Aug-19 13:10
Duuuuuuumb 171 Archaic 22-Aug-19 23:11
Re: Duuuuuuumb 146 Aine 22-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Duuuuuuumb 146 Archaic 23-Aug-19 00:02
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 145 muppedo 23-Aug-19 22:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 139 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:04
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 145 muppedo 25-Aug-19 02:42
Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 177 Lee McGiffen 24-Aug-19 13:28
Re: Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 163 Aine 24-Aug-19 19:28
Cenk Uygur on Trump's Lunacy 148 Lee McGiffen 29-Aug-19 04:01
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 148 Lost_In_Place 30-Aug-19 08:53
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 131 Aine 30-Aug-19 16:50
Mar-a-Key Largo, starring Donald Trump 131 Lee McGiffen 02-Sep-19 09:16


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