Author of the Month :  The Official GrahamHancock.com forums
Join us at this forum every month for a discussion with famous popular authors from around the world. 
Welcome! Log InRegister
You are quite correct, Susan. But your point calls for a clarification of how we use language in this context.

If someone calculates the probability of something occurring to be 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000001, then many people will say that the chance is "zero" when they really mean it to be "virtually zero."

Going the other way, as with DNA matching, one might say that the criminal "is" guilty because the probability of evidence pointing to the criminal is .99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999. Technically speaking, the language is in accurate for the same reason.

And here we come to a dichotomy that I see very often. When people are taking a positive view on an outcome, when they apply this kind of interpretation they may say that there's a 1 in 10 quadrillion chance that the evidence does not point to the criminal. The positive thinkers here will focus on the 10 quadrillion. If they can't dispute the evidence, which would lower the 10 quadrillion side of the equation, the only recourse for the negative thinkers involves pointing to the 1, saying, So you're telling me there is a chance?

In general, we reject this approach because it ignores serious discussions of evidence and sounds like a cop-out. The only rational approach is to address the evidence head-on, that which led to the 10 quadrillion finding. This, I have found, is one of the easier way to detect a skeptic from a pseudo skeptic, and a reasoned believer from one who accepts things on faith, regardless of the evidence, if necessary.

I have no opinion on whether a universe preceded this one, by the way. I don't care. All I know is that a lot of people throw around "is" and "is not", 1 or 0, when it is more correct to say something like, It is "very, very likely" or "very likely not this or that." That's probably what you're picking up on here.

Options: ReplyQuote


Subject Views Written By Posted
Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 45289 Graham Hancock 04-Jun-19 15:43
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 164 Darryl Sloan 04-Jun-19 19:05
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 140 Susan Doris 07-Jun-19 07:13
Definitely not an atheist 151 Robert Jameson 15-Jun-19 07:52
Re: Definitely not an atheist 119 Darryl Sloan 17-Jun-19 10:55
The goldfish analogy 94 Robert Jameson 22-Jun-19 07:23
Re: The goldfish analogy 84 Susan Doris 22-Jun-19 10:53
Re: The goldfish analogy 88 Robert Jameson 22-Jun-19 12:27
Re: The goldfish analogy 92 Susan Doris 22-Jun-19 15:04
Re: The goldfish analogy 87 Eddie Larry 22-Jun-19 19:16
Making something up is terrific and necessary in Science IF 92 drrayeye 22-Jun-19 21:44
Everything is natural 84 greengirl5 23-Jun-19 00:12
Don't stop there 91 drrayeye 23-Jun-19 00:47
Re: Don't stop there 89 hendrik dirker 23-Jun-19 03:35
I met Thomas Kuhn once, Hendrik, 86 drrayeye 23-Jun-19 05:34
From my 'Out of left field' file 81 Robert Jameson 23-Jun-19 09:55
Re: From my 'Out of left field' file 90 Susan Doris 23-Jun-19 12:52
Re: From my 'Out of left field' file 93 Robert Jameson 24-Jun-19 00:52
The paper clip analogy 80 Robert Jameson 23-Jun-19 00:27
Re: The paper clip analogy and chance 87 greengirl5 23-Jun-19 05:07
Monkeys bashing typewriters does not stack up 79 Robert Jameson 23-Jun-19 10:09
I believe you! 75 greengirl5 23-Jun-19 12:23
science jargon 88 drrayeye 23-Jun-19 06:54
Re: The goldfish analogy 82 Darryl Sloan 24-Jun-19 17:56
big bang 76 drrayeye 24-Jun-19 23:45
Re: big bang 72 Robert Jameson 25-Jun-19 03:18
Re: big bang 75 Susan Doris 25-Jun-19 05:16
Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 75 drrayeye 25-Jun-19 06:56
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 74 Susan Doris 25-Jun-19 07:15
There is more to science 74 drrayeye 25-Jun-19 12:10
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 72 Eddie Larry 26-Jun-19 21:51
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 80 Susan Doris 27-Jun-19 07:28
Rant of the month 77 drrayeye 27-Jun-19 08:30
Re: Rant of the month 69 greengirl5 27-Jun-19 23:15
Teach your children 74 drrayeye 28-Jun-19 03:36
Re: Teach your children 76 Susan Doris 28-Jun-19 05:11
Re: Teach your children 70 Darryl Sloan 28-Jun-19 08:17
Re: Teach your children 71 Susan Doris 28-Jun-19 10:21
Re: Teach your children 73 Susan Doris 28-Jun-19 13:06
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 70 Eddie Larry 27-Jun-19 19:02
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 65 Robert Jameson 28-Jun-19 07:36
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 65 Eddie Larry 28-Jun-19 14:25
Re: Science vs. philosophy vs. pop culture 70 Darryl Sloan 28-Jun-19 07:47
Evidence for a creator 83 Robert Jameson 28-Jun-19 09:45
Re: Evidence for a creator 84 Susan Doris 28-Jun-19 10:39
Re: Evidence for a creator 81 Robert Jameson 29-Jun-19 07:52
Re: Evidence for a creator 77 Susan Doris 29-Jun-19 09:29
Re: Evidence for a creator 72 Nolondil 30-Jun-19 14:38
Re: Evidence for a creator 72 Susan Doris 30-Jun-19 15:28
Re: Evidence for a creator 66 Eddie Larry 30-Jun-19 18:12
Re: Evidence for a creator 75 Robert Jameson 01-Jul-19 01:49
Re: Evidence for a creator 80 Susan Doris 01-Jul-19 08:12
Re: Evidence for a creator 73 Robert Jameson 01-Jul-19 22:10
Re: Evidence for a creator 72 Susan Doris 02-Jul-19 05:10
Re: Evidence for a creator 92 Robert Jameson 02-Jul-19 06:06
Re: Evidence for a creator 287 Poster Boy 03-Jul-19 17:08
Re: Evidence for a creator 83 drrayeye 29-Jun-19 10:48
Re: Evidence for a creator 71 Robert Jameson 30-Jun-19 01:30
Re: Evidence for a creator 75 Susan Doris 30-Jun-19 04:52
Re: Evidence for a creator and great scientific minds 81 greengirl5 30-Jun-19 05:42
scientistic jargon misses nuances 69 drrayeye 30-Jun-19 12:33
Re: scientistic jargon misses nuances 73 Susan Doris 30-Jun-19 14:02
Re: big bang 69 Darryl Sloan 25-Jun-19 19:26
Re: big bang 74 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 05:10
Re: The goldfish analogy 70 Eddie Larry 25-Jun-19 00:53
Re: The goldfish analogy 69 Darryl Sloan 25-Jun-19 19:36
Re: The goldfish analogy 69 drrayeye 25-Jun-19 20:13
Re: The goldfish analogy 70 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 05:16
Re: The goldfish analogy 70 Darryl Sloan 24-Jun-19 17:48
Re: The goldfish analogy 77 Darryl Sloan 24-Jun-19 17:46
Re: The goldfish analogy 74 Susan Doris 25-Jun-19 05:26
Re: The goldfish analogy 70 Darryl Sloan 25-Jun-19 19:43
Re: The goldfish analogy 72 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 05:25
Re: The goldfish analogy 64 Eddie Larry 26-Jun-19 21:42
Re: The goldfish analogy 78 Darryl Sloan 24-Jun-19 17:30
"self" between the eyes 73 drrayeye 24-Jun-19 23:53
Re: "self" between the eyes 71 Darryl Sloan 25-Jun-19 19:48
Re: "self" between the eyes 70 drrayeye 25-Jun-19 20:09
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 79 rulebook54 24-Jun-19 19:45
Mod Note > rulebook54 - Threaded vs. Flat View 88 Dr. Troglodyte 24-Jun-19 22:25
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 80 Susan Doris 25-Jun-19 05:39
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 79 Susan Doris 25-Jun-19 13:56
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 74 Eddie Larry 25-Jun-19 14:21
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 76 Susan Doris 25-Jun-19 15:12
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 77 Eddie Larry 25-Jun-19 16:21
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 77 Darryl Sloan 25-Jun-19 20:18
the kingdom of God is within you 72 drrayeye 25-Jun-19 20:36
Re: the kingdom of God is within you 70 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 05:39
Re: the kingdom of God is within you 68 drrayeye 26-Jun-19 06:33
Re: the kingdom of God is within you 68 greengirl5 26-Jun-19 07:10
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 74 Eddie Larry 25-Jun-19 20:42
Me 79 greengirl5 26-Jun-19 03:08
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 73 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 05:31
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 74 Darryl Sloan 26-Jun-19 20:20
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 80 Darryl Sloan 25-Jun-19 20:04
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 80 Eddie Larry 25-Jun-19 20:37
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 71 Darryl Sloan 26-Jun-19 20:22
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 75 Eddie Larry 26-Jun-19 20:34
Cats and dogs 65 greengirl5 27-Jun-19 23:27
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 82 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 06:54
July coming up 75 greengirl5 26-Jun-19 07:41
Cosmic consciousness-theism! 74 greengirl5 26-Jun-19 07:50
Re: July coming up 75 Susan Doris 26-Jun-19 09:08
Re: July coming up 73 greengirl5 26-Jun-19 10:46
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 77 Darryl Sloan 26-Jun-19 20:31
love from above 76 drrayeye 26-Jun-19 23:51
Re: love from above 68 Susan Doris 27-Jun-19 07:36
Kohlberg 71 drrayeye 27-Jun-19 08:06
Re: Kohlberg 64 Susan Doris 27-Jun-19 11:04
Piaget 73 drrayeye 27-Jun-19 19:21
Re: Piaget 71 Eddie Larry 27-Jun-19 21:49
Re: Piaget 66 Susan Doris 28-Jun-19 05:23
Re: love from above 59 Darryl Sloan 30-Jun-19 18:43
No time! ? ? 64 greengirl5 30-Jun-19 23:49
Re: Welcome to Darryl Sloan our author of the month for June 2019 93 Thanos5150 27-Jun-19 05:27
It's not in the text 85 drrayeye 26-Jun-19 21:25
Re: It's not in the text 82 Susan Doris 27-Jun-19 07:41
How Suart saves his family 76 drrayeye 27-Jun-19 08:17
Re: How Suart saves his family 83 Susan Doris 27-Jun-19 11:07
No 80 drrayeye 27-Jun-19 18:21
Am I the only one? 87 greengirl5 27-Jun-19 23:53
Re: Am I the only one? 72 Susan Doris 28-Jun-19 05:33
Re: Am I the only one? 71 greengirl5 28-Jun-19 08:00
Re: It's not in the text 83 Darryl Sloan 28-Jun-19 09:08
Let's try a different approach 84 drrayeye 28-Jun-19 15:42
Re: Let's try a different approach 67 Darryl Sloan 30-Jun-19 18:58
You are a good guy! 89 greengirl5 28-Jun-19 23:51
Farewell, everyone! 88 Darryl Sloan 30-Jun-19 20:22
Re: Farewell, everyone! 75 drrayeye 30-Jun-19 23:11
lets hear it for the universe 78 jazzmumbles 01-Jul-19 00:55
Re: Farewell, everyone! 72 Eddie Larry 01-Jul-19 02:47
Re: Farewell, everyone! 79 Robert Jameson 01-Jul-19 05:55
Re: Farewell, everyone! 87 Susan Doris 01-Jul-19 08:18


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.