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Lol, your article got me wanting to finish the framing.

So, if my approach is not unreasonable, to continue with the King cluster...

Adding to the first two discussed, Andy King (1/600 at least) and King Power company owning Leicester city (1/0 at least):

As far as this layman can tell, this seems like the most straightforward element: The odds that the owner of this franchise, or the 'king' (ceo) of the owning company, would have its birthday on the day of the turnaround game, is 1/365 .
'
Staying with the same formula, and the winning goal in LC's turnaround game extends the King theme three ways against a combined expectation of 2.1 million at least... 1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365

Then there's the fact that this was Andy King's 50th career goal for LC AND that LC was the only club he'd ever played for professionally. I'll close with thick thoughts on that.

The 50th goal was mentioned because we recognize 50 as special. If one were to say that every 50th goal would be comparable in this regard, his 100th, 150th etc, then I believe this 'hit' comes in at 1-in-50.

As for the latter consideration, I might try this, Ray: Andy King was in his tenth professional year when he scored this goal. How many top-flight players, who played ten or more years, played their entire first ten years of pro soccer with the same club, as Andy King did. Again I will set the bar ridiculously low, assuming that we can empirically determine that at least 1 in 10 players stayed with the same club for their first decade.

At [1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365 x 1/50 x 1/10] our cluster, which is highly conservative, is looking like a 1 in 1 billion kind of outcome.

Aside from this being surprisingly normal, Ray, I would only add this. One wrench I see is that there are other ways to make comparable clusters. For example, what if the subsequent "King" associations were replaced by similar ones based on "Richard"? Surely, since this an English story, it would have been noted, had this been Andy King's 66th goal. Now, King's 50th is seen to be one of at least two potentially meaningful, quite comparable amounts - and our 1-in-50 sketch number is seen to be something less...

One can quite easily envision somewhat comparable scenarios. I try to keep mindful of that. It's an important exercise in this kind of study, I believe. But then again, there's a difference between that approach and actually turning to random goals, to see what they might display in reality.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03-Oct-18 01:43 by Poster Boy.

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Subject Views Written By Posted
synchronicity explained? 2238 jazzmumbles 22-Sep-18 00:09
Re: synchronicity explained? 415 D-Archer 22-Sep-18 18:59
Re: synchronicity explained? 379 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 11:53
Re: synchronicity explained? 361 D-Archer 24-Sep-18 12:47
Re: synchronicity explained? 361 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 365 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 04:57
Re: synchronicity explained? 350 D-Archer 26-Sep-18 08:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 355 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 12:01
Re: synchronicity explained? 358 Eddie Larry 26-Sep-18 14:10
Re: synchronicity explained? 339 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 16:16
Re: synchronicity explained? 327 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 16:28
Re: synchronicity explained? 335 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 17:00
Re: synchronicity explained? 351 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 19:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 321 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 20:30
show us more "patterns" like this... 360 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 16:58
Re: synchronicity explained? 322 Susan Doris 28-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 314 Poster Boy 28-Sep-18 15:25
Re: synchronicity explained? 310 Eddie Larry 28-Sep-18 20:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 302 Poster Boy 28-Sep-18 21:07
Re: synchronicity explained? 312 Susan Doris 29-Sep-18 05:40
The statistics of synchronicities--in science 297 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 14:12
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 299 Poster Boy 29-Sep-18 15:56
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 292 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 19:32
Questions on synchronicities and statistical science 303 Poster Boy 30-Sep-18 18:13
Some possibilities 291 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 09:53
Deconstructing one sync. 310 Poster Boy 01-Oct-18 18:08
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 289 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 19:09
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 296 Poster Boy 01-Oct-18 20:24
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 298 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 00:41
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 307 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 02:34
Research design 293 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 04:12
Re: Research design 290 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 04:18
Framing.. Research design 294 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 20:50
Re: Framing.. Research design 292 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 23:21
Re: Framing.. Research design 309 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 04:56
a study of coincidences 286 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 13:24
Re: a study of coincidences 290 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 15:25
Your scepticism antennae 299 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 19:33
Re: Framing.. Research design 305 Poster Boy 03-Oct-18 16:16
Re: Framing.. Research design 308 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 07:17
Re: Framing.. Research design 296 Poster Boy 04-Oct-18 15:10
Re: Framing.. Research design 296 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 17:07
Re: Framing.. Research design 292 Poster Boy 04-Oct-18 17:37
true randomness 310 drrayeye 04-Oct-18 17:53
Re: true randomness 481 Poster Boy 04-Oct-18 19:26
a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 300 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 21:28
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 307 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 05:06
I didn't write this post for you, 300 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 06:05
Re: I didn't write this post for you, 292 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 13:47
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 296 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 08:50
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 299 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 10:27
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 309 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 14:07
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 307 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 15:10
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 306 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 17:09
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 298 Poster Boy 01-Oct-18 19:05
Scientific thinking 316 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 16:43
Re: synchronicity explained? 356 jazzmumbles 26-Sep-18 15:24


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