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Lol, your article got me wanting to finish the framing.

So, if my approach is not unreasonable, to continue with the King cluster...

Adding to the first two discussed, Andy King (1/600 at least) and King Power company owning Leicester city (1/0 at least):

As far as this layman can tell, this seems like the most straightforward element: The odds that the owner of this franchise, or the 'king' (ceo) of the owning company, would have its birthday on the day of the turnaround game, is 1/365 .
'
Staying with the same formula, and the winning goal in LC's turnaround game extends the King theme three ways against a combined expectation of 2.1 million at least... 1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365

Then there's the fact that this was Andy King's 50th career goal for LC AND that LC was the only club he'd ever played for professionally. I'll close with thick thoughts on that.

The 50th goal was mentioned because we recognize 50 as special. If one were to say that every 50th goal would be comparable in this regard, his 100th, 150th etc, then I believe this 'hit' comes in at 1-in-50.

As for the latter consideration, I might try this, Ray: Andy King was in his tenth professional year when he scored this goal. How many top-flight players, who played ten or more years, played their entire first ten years of pro soccer with the same club, as Andy King did. Again I will set the bar ridiculously low, assuming that we can empirically determine that at least 1 in 10 players stayed with the same club for their first decade.

At [1/600 x 1/10 x 1/365 x 1/50 x 1/10] our cluster, which is highly conservative, is looking like a 1 in 1 billion kind of outcome.

Aside from this being surprisingly normal, Ray, I would only add this. One wrench I see is that there are other ways to make comparable clusters. For example, what if the subsequent "King" associations were replaced by similar ones based on "Richard"? Surely, since this an English story, it would have been noted, had this been Andy King's 66th goal. Now, King's 50th is seen to be one of at least two potentially meaningful, quite comparable amounts - and our 1-in-50 sketch number is seen to be something less...

One can quite easily envision somewhat comparable scenarios. I try to keep mindful of that. It's an important exercise in this kind of study, I believe. But then again, there's a difference between that approach and actually turning to random goals, to see what they might display in reality.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03-Oct-18 01:43 by Poster Boy.

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Subject Views Written By Posted
synchronicity explained? 2021 jazzmumbles 22-Sep-18 00:09
Re: synchronicity explained? 321 D-Archer 22-Sep-18 18:59
Re: synchronicity explained? 283 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 11:53
Re: synchronicity explained? 266 D-Archer 24-Sep-18 12:47
Re: synchronicity explained? 269 Itatw70s 24-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 262 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 04:57
Re: synchronicity explained? 254 D-Archer 26-Sep-18 08:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 254 Susan Doris 26-Sep-18 12:01
Re: synchronicity explained? 256 Eddie Larry 26-Sep-18 14:10
Re: synchronicity explained? 250 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 16:16
Re: synchronicity explained? 246 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 16:28
Re: synchronicity explained? 247 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 17:00
Re: synchronicity explained? 256 Eddie Larry 27-Sep-18 19:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 241 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 20:30
show us more "patterns" like this... 261 Poster Boy 27-Sep-18 16:58
Re: synchronicity explained? 248 Susan Doris 28-Sep-18 13:56
Re: synchronicity explained? 233 Poster Boy 28-Sep-18 15:25
Re: synchronicity explained? 226 Eddie Larry 28-Sep-18 20:37
Re: synchronicity explained? 219 Poster Boy 28-Sep-18 21:07
Re: synchronicity explained? 225 Susan Doris 29-Sep-18 05:40
The statistics of synchronicities--in science 225 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 14:12
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 225 Poster Boy 29-Sep-18 15:56
Re: The statistics of synchronicities--in science 223 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 19:32
Questions on synchronicities and statistical science 228 Poster Boy 30-Sep-18 18:13
Some possibilities 222 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 09:53
Deconstructing one sync. 229 Poster Boy 01-Oct-18 18:08
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 216 drrayeye 01-Oct-18 19:09
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 224 Poster Boy 01-Oct-18 20:24
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 231 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 00:41
Re: Deconstructing one sync. 225 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 02:34
Research design 219 drrayeye 02-Oct-18 04:12
Re: Research design 219 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 04:18
Framing.. Research design 223 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 20:50
Re: Framing.. Research design 220 Poster Boy 02-Oct-18 23:21
Re: Framing.. Research design 220 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 04:56
a study of coincidences 219 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 13:24
Re: a study of coincidences 219 Susan Doris 03-Oct-18 15:25
Your scepticism antennae 217 drrayeye 03-Oct-18 19:33
Re: Framing.. Research design 224 Poster Boy 03-Oct-18 16:16
Re: Framing.. Research design 222 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 07:17
Re: Framing.. Research design 222 Poster Boy 04-Oct-18 15:10
Re: Framing.. Research design 220 Susan Doris 04-Oct-18 17:07
Re: Framing.. Research design 219 Poster Boy 04-Oct-18 17:37
true randomness 221 drrayeye 04-Oct-18 17:53
Re: true randomness 343 Poster Boy 04-Oct-18 19:26
a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 228 drrayeye 29-Sep-18 21:28
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 229 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 05:06
I didn't write this post for you, 230 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 06:05
Re: I didn't write this post for you, 221 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 13:47
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 225 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 08:50
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 231 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 10:27
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 224 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 14:07
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 221 Susan Doris 30-Sep-18 15:10
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 226 Eddie Larry 30-Sep-18 17:09
Re: a scientific alternative to dismissive debunking 225 Poster Boy 01-Oct-18 19:05
Scientific thinking 239 drrayeye 30-Sep-18 16:43
Re: synchronicity explained? 260 jazzmumbles 26-Sep-18 15:24


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