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Again - very interesting and I do not dispute any of what you say. I have in fact, just started reading this book which is very relevant.
However long it has taken for the reality of global warning to be accepted, in the end there will not be a statement that it is 100% fact, but however close they get to that, it will be based on objective evidence, not on any hearsay! And I think you will agree with that!

Susan



drrayeye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Susan,
>
> There is a grain of truth in your claim--but only
> a grain. The hypothetical/deductive method
> involving formal experimental and null hypotheses
> is unique to the sciences--but is rarely used in
> it's pure form. Seen historically, it often comes
> as a culmination of a great deal of foundational
> research which refines simple observations. Even
> then, certain requirements of the design may not
> be met.
>
> A good example is global warming. As early as the
> 18th century, there was speculation that the
> burning of wood, peat, and coal could cause the
> release of gases that could increase global
> temperature, but there weren't enough observations
> over the entire globe over a long enough period of
> time to really formally test that hypothesis. Two
> centuries later, we formed an international group
> called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
> Change (IPCC) to carry out a global study
> measuring both temperature and CO2 concentration
> prospectively, and earlier temperature changes
> retrospectively--using data from tree ring samples
> and ice core samples. The retrospective data,
> imperfect as it was, clearly showed temperature
> cycles with a sharp upward trend in recent times.
> Using data from weather observation sites
> onground, buoys at sea, and satellites in space,
> we were finally able to present truly global
> measurements for the first time that verified the
> increases--including the sharp increase in recent
> years. At the same time, studies of CO2
> concentration showed similar increases.
>
> Unfortunately, there was no way to do a controlled
> experiment to test the hypothesis that the
> increases in CO2 caused the increases in
> temperature. Remember, that was the original
> hypothesis. Instead, we correlated the CO2 and
> temperature observations with each other and found
> an association that couldn't be explained by
> chance.
>
> So, it was "kind of" the scientific method you are
> talking about--if we just look at the most recent
> studies. But the approach was by no means the out
> of the box, step by step, process you describe.
> Worse yet, the final association documented fell
> short of the causal findings demanded by "the
> scientific method."
>
> Ray

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Subject Views Written By Posted
Methods 1339 Susan Doris 16-Dec-18 12:35
Re: Methods 141 Eddie Larry 16-Dec-18 15:34
Re: Methods 132 Susan Doris 16-Dec-18 16:39
Re: Methods 138 Eddie Larry 16-Dec-18 18:15
Re: Methods 130 Itatw70s 16-Dec-18 23:59
Re: Methods 129 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 06:29
Re: Methods 140 Eddie Larry 17-Dec-18 15:31
Re: Methods 128 drrayeye 17-Dec-18 08:08
Re: Methods 130 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 08:37
Re: Methods 137 greengirl5 17-Dec-18 09:04
Re: Methods 130 Enigcom 17-Dec-18 12:13
An example 128 drrayeye 17-Dec-18 15:55
Re: An example 123 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 17:20
Re: An example 134 Itatw70s 17-Dec-18 17:57
Re: An example 127 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 07:59
If we accept academic standards, 134 drrayeye 18-Dec-18 13:28
Re: If we accept academic standards, 133 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 15:19
Re: If we accept academic standards, 121 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 16:31
Re: If we accept academic standards, 126 Enigcom 18-Dec-18 17:17
Re: If we accept academic standards, 120 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:35
Re: If we accept academic standards, 123 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:31
Re: If we accept academic standards, 123 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 18:59
Re: If we accept academic standards, 124 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 19:11
Re: If we accept academic standards, 123 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 19:56
Re: If we accept academic standards, 125 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 21:58
Re: If we accept academic standards, 132 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:12
Bee in the bonnet 135 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 07:45
Re: Bee in the bonnet 131 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 08:10
Re: If we accept academic standards, 127 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 06:33
Re: If we accept academic standards, 133 Eddie Larry 19-Dec-18 22:04
Re: If we accept academic standards, 115 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:25
Re: If we accept academic standards, 112 Eddie Larry 22-Dec-18 20:42
Real world example of the scientific method 137 drrayeye 18-Dec-18 19:04
Re: Real world example of the scientific method 133 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 19:27
Statements! 136 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 07:55
Re: If we accept academic standards, 104 drrayeye 27-Dec-18 09:42
Re: If we accept academic standards, 162 Susan Doris 27-Dec-18 13:32
Re: An example 133 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 21:38
Re: An example 122 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:16
Re: An example 126 Enigcom 18-Dec-18 17:14
Re: An example 128 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:42
Re: An example 126 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 22:07
Re: An example 127 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:20
So, try to prove art 126 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 08:00
Re: So, try to prove art 132 Itatw70s 19-Dec-18 12:52
Re: So, try to prove art 120 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:07
Re: So, try to prove art 119 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 00:18
Re: So, try to prove art 109 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 06:55
Re: An example 116 Enigcom 22-Dec-18 13:00
Re: An example 122 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:18
Re: An example 120 greengirl5 22-Dec-18 21:15
Re: An example 125 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 00:32
Re: An example 119 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 09:33
Re: An example 120 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 07:00
Communicate.... 112 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 21:35
Re: An example 120 Enigcom 23-Dec-18 19:24
Re: An example 114 Susan Doris 24-Dec-18 06:27
Happy Christmas everybody, from Australia. 123 greengirl5 24-Dec-18 11:43
a Method for the Holidays 114 drrayeye 24-Dec-18 19:18
Re: a Method for the Holidays 115 Susan Doris 25-Dec-18 06:38
Re: Methods 33 ian 77 11-Jun-19 20:13
Re: Methods 24 Susan Doris 13-Jun-19 05:12
Re: Methods 46 drew 13-Jun-19 07:49


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