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Again - very interesting and I do not dispute any of what you say. I have in fact, just started reading this book which is very relevant.
However long it has taken for the reality of global warning to be accepted, in the end there will not be a statement that it is 100% fact, but however close they get to that, it will be based on objective evidence, not on any hearsay! And I think you will agree with that!

Susan



drrayeye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Susan,
>
> There is a grain of truth in your claim--but only
> a grain. The hypothetical/deductive method
> involving formal experimental and null hypotheses
> is unique to the sciences--but is rarely used in
> it's pure form. Seen historically, it often comes
> as a culmination of a great deal of foundational
> research which refines simple observations. Even
> then, certain requirements of the design may not
> be met.
>
> A good example is global warming. As early as the
> 18th century, there was speculation that the
> burning of wood, peat, and coal could cause the
> release of gases that could increase global
> temperature, but there weren't enough observations
> over the entire globe over a long enough period of
> time to really formally test that hypothesis. Two
> centuries later, we formed an international group
> called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
> Change (IPCC) to carry out a global study
> measuring both temperature and CO2 concentration
> prospectively, and earlier temperature changes
> retrospectively--using data from tree ring samples
> and ice core samples. The retrospective data,
> imperfect as it was, clearly showed temperature
> cycles with a sharp upward trend in recent times.
> Using data from weather observation sites
> onground, buoys at sea, and satellites in space,
> we were finally able to present truly global
> measurements for the first time that verified the
> increases--including the sharp increase in recent
> years. At the same time, studies of CO2
> concentration showed similar increases.
>
> Unfortunately, there was no way to do a controlled
> experiment to test the hypothesis that the
> increases in CO2 caused the increases in
> temperature. Remember, that was the original
> hypothesis. Instead, we correlated the CO2 and
> temperature observations with each other and found
> an association that couldn't be explained by
> chance.
>
> So, it was "kind of" the scientific method you are
> talking about--if we just look at the most recent
> studies. But the approach was by no means the out
> of the box, step by step, process you describe.
> Worse yet, the final association documented fell
> short of the causal findings demanded by "the
> scientific method."
>
> Ray

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Subject Views Written By Posted
Methods 794 Susan Doris 16-Dec-18 12:35
Re: Methods 74 Eddie Larry 16-Dec-18 15:34
Re: Methods 67 Susan Doris 16-Dec-18 16:39
Re: Methods 70 Eddie Larry 16-Dec-18 18:15
Re: Methods 65 Itatw70s 16-Dec-18 23:59
Re: Methods 62 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 06:29
Re: Methods 62 Eddie Larry 17-Dec-18 15:31
Re: Methods 64 drrayeye 17-Dec-18 08:08
Re: Methods 65 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 08:37
Re: Methods 69 greengirl5 17-Dec-18 09:04
Re: Methods 62 Enigcom 17-Dec-18 12:13
An example 62 drrayeye 17-Dec-18 15:55
Re: An example 60 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 17:20
Re: An example 68 Itatw70s 17-Dec-18 17:57
Re: An example 64 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 07:59
If we accept academic standards, 60 drrayeye 18-Dec-18 13:28
Re: If we accept academic standards, 68 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 15:19
Re: If we accept academic standards, 58 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 16:31
Re: If we accept academic standards, 58 Enigcom 18-Dec-18 17:17
Re: If we accept academic standards, 55 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:35
Re: If we accept academic standards, 56 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:31
Re: If we accept academic standards, 57 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 18:59
Re: If we accept academic standards, 58 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 19:11
Re: If we accept academic standards, 56 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 19:56
Re: If we accept academic standards, 58 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 21:58
Re: If we accept academic standards, 69 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:12
Bee in the bonnet 71 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 07:45
Re: Bee in the bonnet 64 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 08:10
Re: If we accept academic standards, 60 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 06:33
Re: If we accept academic standards, 63 Eddie Larry 19-Dec-18 22:04
Re: If we accept academic standards, 48 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:25
Re: If we accept academic standards, 50 Eddie Larry 22-Dec-18 20:42
Real world example of the scientific method 70 drrayeye 18-Dec-18 19:04
Re: Real world example of the scientific method 69 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 19:27
Statements! 58 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 07:55
Re: If we accept academic standards, 37 drrayeye 27-Dec-18 09:42
Re: If we accept academic standards, 65 Susan Doris 27-Dec-18 13:32
Re: An example 65 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 21:38
Re: An example 57 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:16
Re: An example 58 Enigcom 18-Dec-18 17:14
Re: An example 63 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:42
Re: An example 61 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 22:07
Re: An example 60 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:20
So, try to prove art 61 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 08:00
Re: So, try to prove art 65 Itatw70s 19-Dec-18 12:52
Re: So, try to prove art 55 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:07
Re: So, try to prove art 53 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 00:18
Re: So, try to prove art 47 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 06:55
Re: An example 51 Enigcom 22-Dec-18 13:00
Re: An example 55 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:18
Re: An example 56 greengirl5 22-Dec-18 21:15
Re: An example 61 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 00:32
Re: An example 51 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 09:33
Re: An example 53 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 07:00
Communicate.... 49 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 21:35
Re: An example 54 Enigcom 23-Dec-18 19:24
Re: An example 51 Susan Doris 24-Dec-18 06:27
Happy Christmas everybody, from Australia. 55 greengirl5 24-Dec-18 11:43
a Method for the Holidays 50 drrayeye 24-Dec-18 19:18
Re: a Method for the Holidays 51 Susan Doris 25-Dec-18 06:38


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