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Again - very interesting and I do not dispute any of what you say. I have in fact, just started reading this book which is very relevant.
However long it has taken for the reality of global warning to be accepted, in the end there will not be a statement that it is 100% fact, but however close they get to that, it will be based on objective evidence, not on any hearsay! And I think you will agree with that!

Susan



drrayeye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Susan,
>
> There is a grain of truth in your claim--but only
> a grain. The hypothetical/deductive method
> involving formal experimental and null hypotheses
> is unique to the sciences--but is rarely used in
> it's pure form. Seen historically, it often comes
> as a culmination of a great deal of foundational
> research which refines simple observations. Even
> then, certain requirements of the design may not
> be met.
>
> A good example is global warming. As early as the
> 18th century, there was speculation that the
> burning of wood, peat, and coal could cause the
> release of gases that could increase global
> temperature, but there weren't enough observations
> over the entire globe over a long enough period of
> time to really formally test that hypothesis. Two
> centuries later, we formed an international group
> called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
> Change (IPCC) to carry out a global study
> measuring both temperature and CO2 concentration
> prospectively, and earlier temperature changes
> retrospectively--using data from tree ring samples
> and ice core samples. The retrospective data,
> imperfect as it was, clearly showed temperature
> cycles with a sharp upward trend in recent times.
> Using data from weather observation sites
> onground, buoys at sea, and satellites in space,
> we were finally able to present truly global
> measurements for the first time that verified the
> increases--including the sharp increase in recent
> years. At the same time, studies of CO2
> concentration showed similar increases.
>
> Unfortunately, there was no way to do a controlled
> experiment to test the hypothesis that the
> increases in CO2 caused the increases in
> temperature. Remember, that was the original
> hypothesis. Instead, we correlated the CO2 and
> temperature observations with each other and found
> an association that couldn't be explained by
> chance.
>
> So, it was "kind of" the scientific method you are
> talking about--if we just look at the most recent
> studies. But the approach was by no means the out
> of the box, step by step, process you describe.
> Worse yet, the final association documented fell
> short of the causal findings demanded by "the
> scientific method."
>
> Ray

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Subject Views Written By Posted
Methods 1489 Susan Doris 16-Dec-18 12:35
Re: Methods 174 Eddie Larry 16-Dec-18 15:34
Re: Methods 166 Susan Doris 16-Dec-18 16:39
Re: Methods 174 Eddie Larry 16-Dec-18 18:15
Re: Methods 160 Itatw70s 16-Dec-18 23:59
Re: Methods 169 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 06:29
Re: Methods 176 Eddie Larry 17-Dec-18 15:31
Re: Methods 163 drrayeye 17-Dec-18 08:08
Re: Methods 160 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 08:37
Re: Methods 166 greengirl5 17-Dec-18 09:04
Re: Methods 158 Enigcom 17-Dec-18 12:13
An example 161 drrayeye 17-Dec-18 15:55
Re: An example 155 Susan Doris 17-Dec-18 17:20
Re: An example 164 Itatw70s 17-Dec-18 17:57
Re: An example 156 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 07:59
If we accept academic standards, 166 drrayeye 18-Dec-18 13:28
Re: If we accept academic standards, 162 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 15:19
Re: If we accept academic standards, 153 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 16:31
Re: If we accept academic standards, 160 Enigcom 18-Dec-18 17:17
Re: If we accept academic standards, 152 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:35
Re: If we accept academic standards, 163 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:31
Re: If we accept academic standards, 156 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 18:59
Re: If we accept academic standards, 152 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 19:11
Re: If we accept academic standards, 154 Eddie Larry 18-Dec-18 19:56
Re: If we accept academic standards, 154 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 21:58
Re: If we accept academic standards, 162 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:12
Bee in the bonnet 164 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 07:45
Re: Bee in the bonnet 166 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 08:10
Re: If we accept academic standards, 156 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 06:33
Re: If we accept academic standards, 164 Eddie Larry 19-Dec-18 22:04
Re: If we accept academic standards, 147 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:25
Re: If we accept academic standards, 141 Eddie Larry 22-Dec-18 20:42
Real world example of the scientific method 170 drrayeye 18-Dec-18 19:04
Re: Real world example of the scientific method 162 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 19:27
Statements! 165 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 07:55
Re: If we accept academic standards, 139 drrayeye 27-Dec-18 09:42
Re: If we accept academic standards, 193 Susan Doris 27-Dec-18 13:32
Re: An example 163 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 21:38
Re: An example 153 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:16
Re: An example 158 Enigcom 18-Dec-18 17:14
Re: An example 156 Susan Doris 18-Dec-18 18:42
Re: An example 159 Itatw70s 18-Dec-18 22:07
Re: An example 161 Susan Doris 19-Dec-18 07:20
So, try to prove art 155 greengirl5 19-Dec-18 08:00
Re: So, try to prove art 165 Itatw70s 19-Dec-18 12:52
Re: So, try to prove art 149 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:07
Re: So, try to prove art 148 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 00:18
Re: So, try to prove art 140 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 06:55
Re: An example 152 Enigcom 22-Dec-18 13:00
Re: An example 155 Susan Doris 22-Dec-18 20:18
Re: An example 160 greengirl5 22-Dec-18 21:15
Re: An example 155 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 00:32
Re: An example 157 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 09:33
Re: An example 155 Susan Doris 23-Dec-18 07:00
Communicate.... 142 Itatw70s 23-Dec-18 21:35
Re: An example 151 Enigcom 23-Dec-18 19:24
Re: An example 145 Susan Doris 24-Dec-18 06:27
Happy Christmas everybody, from Australia. 151 greengirl5 24-Dec-18 11:43
a Method for the Holidays 142 drrayeye 24-Dec-18 19:18
Re: a Method for the Holidays 144 Susan Doris 25-Dec-18 06:38
Re: Methods 66 ian 77 11-Jun-19 20:13
Re: Methods 56 Susan Doris 13-Jun-19 05:12
Re: Methods 107 drew 13-Jun-19 07:49


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