The ability to forecast these kinds of events is increasingly important as NASA prepares to send the first woman and the next man to the Moon under the Artemis program. Research now underway may have found a reliable new method to predict this solar activity. The Sun's activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.
However the current solar cycle has been a weak one - and NASA is predicting the next one will be even weaker. Here is what it looks like graphed out:
Now someone did a nice overlay of the past 2 solar cycles, the current cycle, and the NASA predicted next cycle. From here. It looks like this:
For those who study history, the Dalton minimum included what in North America was called "the year without a summer". My grandfather (born in 1897) told me stories that had been told to him by his grandfather. It was a bad time.
Combine this with the accelerating weakening of Earth's magnetic field and we are going to continue to have increasing cosmic radiation into the atmosphere, increasing clouds and precipitation. Unlike the Maunder minimum, I don't think it means worse winters. I think it will mean cooler and cloudy summers, with strong negative impacts on agriculture throughout the US midwest and Canada. This is what corn crop planting looks like as of the beginning of this month in 2019:
Interesting times. I am posting this here on the Science board, but I think Global Village would interested in this as well.
|Repeating the Dalton Minimum?||813||Race Jackson||23-Jun-19 20:08|
|Re: Repeating the Dalton Minimum?||149||Race Jackson||26-Jun-19 20:44|