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Hi Paul, here is an analysis of recent bond moves by Bob Carlson:

“There are a lot of ways to measure the strong performance of long-term treasuries. The long-term U.S. government bond has had its best performance ever to this point in the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In addition, this month likely will end as the best monthly performance for the long bond since August 2011. And this is likely to be the 19th month, since 1987, in which long-term treasuries returned at least 10 percentage points more than the S&P 500.

The yield on the 30-year treasury declined below 2% and also below the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The latter hasn’t happened since March 2009. The only times the S&P 500 dividend yield has exceeded the 30-year treasury yield were this week and several times during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Historically, a period of strong outperformance by the long-term bond usually is followed by solid returns for stocks. But, historically, bond outperformance is associated with significant declines in stocks and recessions. Those conditions aren’t present now, so it’s not a good idea to count on a big, sustained bounce in stocks.

Instead, this decline in treasury yields means investors are convinced growth and inflation will be low for some time. It also represents a flight to safety as investors worry about trade conflicts and other geopolitical problems. “

Bob mentions weak growth and low inflation for the decline in bond prices. I would add the demographic aging of the world population as also one cause. As folks get older they spend less and try to conserve capital bynmoving from risk assets to bonds and bond substitutes. This aging is ramping up. Seniors are buying bonds, which paradoxically hurts their need for interest and dividends. However, that may be, it is about supply and demand, the governments do not want our money! Or they don’t want to pay for it! As the populations continue to age, interest rates will continue to decline and the Fed. reserve banks around the world will be lowering interest rates. Ours to! It is just a matter of time.

As a matter of policy, if I was the Pres, I would focus on the youth and family formation. If you have three kids - no taxes for twenty years or some such. I would help with student loans as well.

All the senior citizens I know are doing just fine, thus my focus is on the youth. Hope this helps.

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Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 1393 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 94 Warwick 21-Aug-19 16:47
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 95 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:56
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 91 OCaptain 21-Aug-19 17:27
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 85 Warwick 21-Aug-19 17:32
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 92 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 78 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:34
Blood Libel 83 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:03
Re: Blood Libel 74 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:14
Re: Blood Libel 69 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:39
Re: Blood Libel 65 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 15:56
Re: Blood Libel 65 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:08
Re: Blood Libel 59 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 16:15
Re: Blood Libel 57 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:26
Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 58 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 22:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 52 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 51 Eddie Larry 28-Aug-19 17:02
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 41 Aine 29-Aug-19 13:14
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 48 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 20:03
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 38 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 20:54
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 39 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 23:52
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 38 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:41
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 46 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 14:00
Recession Republicanism 47 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 14:33
Re: Recession Republicanism 42 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 18:39
Re: Recession Republicanism 40 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 19:09
Re: Recession Republicanism 36 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:23
Re: Recession Republicanismo 41 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 16:49
Re: Recession Republicanismo 36 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 35 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:13
Re: Recession Republicanismo 35 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 42 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:46
Re: Recession Republicanismo 42 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 14:05
Re: Recession Republicanismo 37 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:15
Re: Recession Republicanismo 38 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 15:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 36 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:35
Re: Recession Republicanismo 40 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 12:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 38 Eddie Larry 02-Sep-19 14:45
Re: Recession Republicanismo 34 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 20:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 40 Eddie Larry 03-Sep-19 00:06
Re: Recession Republicanismo 36 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 14:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 38 Aine 01-Sep-19 15:41
Re: Recession Republicanismo 38 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 22:59
Re: Recession Republicanismo 31 Aine 03-Sep-19 17:41
Automation 33 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 20:24
Re: Automation 41 Aine 03-Sep-19 22:20
Re: Recession Republicanismo 29 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 23:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 40 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:04
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 42 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 21:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 41 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:46
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 43 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:44
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 42 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 13:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 40 Nolondil 30-Aug-19 22:18
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 39 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 23:15
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 39 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 00:00
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 42 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:39
Re: Blood Libel 65 adequatedane 23-Aug-19 22:16
Re: Blood Libel 57 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:02
Re: Blood Libel 58 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 11:37
Re: Blood Libel 62 Aine 24-Aug-19 12:38
Re: Blood Libel 56 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 23:28
Re: Blood Libel 56 Aine 25-Aug-19 01:11
Re: Blood Libel 51 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 14:14
Re: Blood Libel 56 Aine 25-Aug-19 15:36
“American Factory” 59 Eddie Larry 25-Aug-19 15:45
Re: “American Factory” 51 Aine 25-Aug-19 16:35
Re: “American Factory” 60 Poster Boy 25-Aug-19 17:39
Re: “American Factory” 57 Aine 25-Aug-19 17:55
Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 59 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 17:24
Re: Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 60 Nolondil 25-Aug-19 22:46
Re: Blood Libel 72 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:17
Re: Blood Libel 62 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:10
Re: Blood Libel 59 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:26
Re: Blood Libel 72 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:06
Re: Blood Libel 65 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:23
Re: Blood Libel 65 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:27
Re: Blood Libel 53 OCaptain 26-Aug-19 10:36
Re: Blood Libel 47 Aine 26-Aug-19 22:30
Re: Blood Libel 54 OCaptain 27-Aug-19 02:20
Re: Blood Libel 54 Aine 27-Aug-19 13:22
Re: Blood Libel 53 Aine 28-Aug-19 00:05
Re: Blood Libel 47 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:21
Re: Blood Libel 49 Aine 28-Aug-19 16:13
I know, I know! 53 Warwick 28-Aug-19 16:16
Re: I know, I know! 56 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:06
Re: I know, I know! 44 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:21
Re: I know, I know! 45 Aine 29-Aug-19 16:38
Re: I know, I know! 42 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:59
Re: Blood Libel 41 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:05
Re: Blood Libel 42 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:20
Re: Blood Libel 58 drrayeye 26-Aug-19 22:57
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 83 Racho 21-Aug-19 19:26
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 66 Aine 21-Aug-19 19:31
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 63 Warwick 21-Aug-19 19:42
Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 66 Racho 21-Aug-19 20:13
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 60 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:05
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 60 Racho 21-Aug-19 22:48
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 61 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:52
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 64 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:14
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 63 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:17
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 67 Racho 21-Aug-19 18:41
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 63 Aine 21-Aug-19 18:48
25th Amendment 67 Nolondil 21-Aug-19 21:14
Re: 25th Amendment 60 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:55
Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 71 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 21:56
Re: Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 74 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:07
About what I expected 71 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 22:36
Re: About what I expected 63 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:42
Whose panties be bunched? 66 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:35
Hodgetwins vs Lee 55 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 02:33
Hodges easy 56 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:13
You can lead a horse to water . . . 55 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:11
Re: About what I expected 66 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:24
Re: About what I expected 56 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:30
Aines Normal Disinformation 72 adequatedane 21-Aug-19 23:46
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 61 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 59 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 12:20
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 53 Aine 22-Aug-19 12:45
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 52 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 19:36
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 52 Aine 22-Aug-19 22:21
Re: Aine Lies 55 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 22:54
Thomas's question: Is Donald really bonkers? 67 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 00:32
From the "pros", lul 67 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:43
Did it all for you 66 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 01:58
Visit an echo chamber? 69 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:21
I'm no mental health professional 63 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:14
Clearly 54 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 22:59
Mental health 56 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:34
Re: Mental health 61 Sirfiroth 23-Aug-19 16:32
Re: Mental health 61 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:57
CDC Mental health advice for cowboys 50 drrayeye 24-Aug-19 03:08
Re: About what I expected 78 OCaptain 22-Aug-19 12:28
zzzz 65 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 23:11
Talk to NASA and the IPCC 52 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:36
Re: Talk to NASA and the IPCC 76 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:48
Way better 59 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 08:35
Re: zzzz 63 OCaptain 23-Aug-19 11:35
But it's your faith?! 55 Buck 45 23-Aug-19 22:13
Re: But it's your faith?! 57 OCaptain 24-Aug-19 12:17
Denmark and Greenland 43 greengirl5 30-Aug-19 00:13
Re: Denmark and Greenland 44 Aine 30-Aug-19 00:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 77 Lee McGiffen 22-Aug-19 13:10
Duuuuuuumb 72 Archaic 22-Aug-19 23:11
Re: Duuuuuuumb 69 Aine 22-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Duuuuuuumb 83 Archaic 23-Aug-19 00:02
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 60 muppedo 23-Aug-19 22:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 64 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:04
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 63 muppedo 25-Aug-19 02:42
Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 91 Lee McGiffen 24-Aug-19 13:28
Re: Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 86 Aine 24-Aug-19 19:28
Cenk Uygur on Trump's Lunacy 62 Lee McGiffen 29-Aug-19 04:01
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 61 Lost_In_Place 30-Aug-19 08:53
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 59 Aine 30-Aug-19 16:50
Mar-a-Key Largo, starring Donald Trump 49 Lee McGiffen 02-Sep-19 09:16


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