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Hi Paul, here is an analysis of recent bond moves by Bob Carlson:

“There are a lot of ways to measure the strong performance of long-term treasuries. The long-term U.S. government bond has had its best performance ever to this point in the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In addition, this month likely will end as the best monthly performance for the long bond since August 2011. And this is likely to be the 19th month, since 1987, in which long-term treasuries returned at least 10 percentage points more than the S&P 500.

The yield on the 30-year treasury declined below 2% and also below the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The latter hasn’t happened since March 2009. The only times the S&P 500 dividend yield has exceeded the 30-year treasury yield were this week and several times during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Historically, a period of strong outperformance by the long-term bond usually is followed by solid returns for stocks. But, historically, bond outperformance is associated with significant declines in stocks and recessions. Those conditions aren’t present now, so it’s not a good idea to count on a big, sustained bounce in stocks.

Instead, this decline in treasury yields means investors are convinced growth and inflation will be low for some time. It also represents a flight to safety as investors worry about trade conflicts and other geopolitical problems. “

Bob mentions weak growth and low inflation for the decline in bond prices. I would add the demographic aging of the world population as also one cause. As folks get older they spend less and try to conserve capital bynmoving from risk assets to bonds and bond substitutes. This aging is ramping up. Seniors are buying bonds, which paradoxically hurts their need for interest and dividends. However, that may be, it is about supply and demand, the governments do not want our money! Or they don’t want to pay for it! As the populations continue to age, interest rates will continue to decline and the Fed. reserve banks around the world will be lowering interest rates. Ours to! It is just a matter of time.

As a matter of policy, if I was the Pres, I would focus on the youth and family formation. If you have three kids - no taxes for twenty years or some such. I would help with student loans as well.

All the senior citizens I know are doing just fine, thus my focus is on the youth. Hope this helps.

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Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 1484 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 110 Warwick 21-Aug-19 16:47
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 121 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:56
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 115 OCaptain 21-Aug-19 17:27
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 103 Warwick 21-Aug-19 17:32
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 136 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 96 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:34
Blood Libel 104 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:03
Re: Blood Libel 105 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:14
Re: Blood Libel 104 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:39
Re: Blood Libel 84 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 15:56
Re: Blood Libel 92 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:08
Re: Blood Libel 81 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 16:15
Re: Blood Libel 74 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:26
Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 77 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 22:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 81 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 69 Eddie Larry 28-Aug-19 17:02
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 68 Aine 29-Aug-19 13:14
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 77 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 20:03
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 58 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 20:54
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 69 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 23:52
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 67 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:41
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 67 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 14:00
Recession Republicanism 70 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 14:33
Re: Recession Republicanism 62 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 18:39
Re: Recession Republicanism 60 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 19:09
Re: Recession Republicanism 56 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:23
Re: Recession Republicanismo 64 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 16:49
Re: Recession Republicanismo 60 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 57 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:13
Re: Recession Republicanismo 52 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 59 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:46
Re: Recession Republicanismo 64 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 14:05
Re: Recession Republicanismo 61 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:15
Re: Recession Republicanismo 56 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 15:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 58 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:35
Re: Recession Republicanismo 58 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 12:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 64 Eddie Larry 02-Sep-19 14:45
Re: Recession Republicanismo 53 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 20:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 65 Eddie Larry 03-Sep-19 00:06
Re: Recession Republicanismo 55 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 14:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 63 Aine 01-Sep-19 15:41
Re: Recession Republicanismo 61 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 22:59
Re: Recession Republicanismo 53 Aine 03-Sep-19 17:41
Automation 52 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 20:24
Re: Automation 67 Aine 03-Sep-19 22:20
Re: Recession Republicanismo 49 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 23:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 63 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:04
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 63 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 21:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 69 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:46
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 67 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:44
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 66 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 13:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 76 Nolondil 30-Aug-19 22:18
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 58 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 23:15
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 56 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 00:00
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 64 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:39
Re: Blood Libel 83 adequatedane 23-Aug-19 22:16
Re: Blood Libel 84 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:02
Re: Blood Libel 88 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 11:37
Re: Blood Libel 90 Aine 24-Aug-19 12:38
Re: Blood Libel 87 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 23:28
Re: Blood Libel 81 Aine 25-Aug-19 01:11
Re: Blood Libel 77 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 14:14
Re: Blood Libel 86 Aine 25-Aug-19 15:36
“American Factory” 77 Eddie Larry 25-Aug-19 15:45
Re: “American Factory” 77 Aine 25-Aug-19 16:35
Re: “American Factory” 84 Poster Boy 25-Aug-19 17:39
Re: “American Factory” 85 Aine 25-Aug-19 17:55
Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 81 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 17:24
Re: Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 90 Nolondil 25-Aug-19 22:46
Re: Blood Libel 122 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:17
Re: Blood Libel 94 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:10
Re: Blood Libel 81 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:26
Re: Blood Libel 114 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:06
Re: Blood Libel 96 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:23
Re: Blood Libel 105 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:27
Re: Blood Libel 74 OCaptain 26-Aug-19 10:36
Re: Blood Libel 66 Aine 26-Aug-19 22:30
Re: Blood Libel 79 OCaptain 27-Aug-19 02:20
Re: Blood Libel 69 Aine 27-Aug-19 13:22
Re: Blood Libel 76 Aine 28-Aug-19 00:05
Re: Blood Libel 67 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:21
Re: Blood Libel 67 Aine 28-Aug-19 16:13
I know, I know! 82 Warwick 28-Aug-19 16:16
Re: I know, I know! 80 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:06
Re: I know, I know! 63 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:21
Re: I know, I know! 63 Aine 29-Aug-19 16:38
Re: I know, I know! 65 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:59
Re: Blood Libel 59 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:05
Re: Blood Libel 61 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:20
Re: Blood Libel 75 drrayeye 26-Aug-19 22:57
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 102 Racho 21-Aug-19 19:26
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 90 Aine 21-Aug-19 19:31
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 100 Warwick 21-Aug-19 19:42
Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 84 Racho 21-Aug-19 20:13
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 88 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:05
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 76 Racho 21-Aug-19 22:48
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 92 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:52
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 87 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:14
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 83 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:17
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 86 Racho 21-Aug-19 18:41
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 83 Aine 21-Aug-19 18:48
25th Amendment 96 Nolondil 21-Aug-19 21:14
Re: 25th Amendment 77 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:55
Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 90 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 21:56
Re: Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 89 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:07
About what I expected 90 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 22:36
Re: About what I expected 80 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:42
Whose panties be bunched? 90 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:35
Hodgetwins vs Lee 80 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 02:33
Hodges easy 79 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:13
You can lead a horse to water . . . 73 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:11
Re: About what I expected 82 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:24
Re: About what I expected 74 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:30
Aines Normal Disinformation 91 adequatedane 21-Aug-19 23:46
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 81 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 76 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 12:20
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 67 Aine 22-Aug-19 12:45
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 66 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 19:36
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 69 Aine 22-Aug-19 22:21
Re: Aine Lies 69 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 22:54
Thomas's question: Is Donald really bonkers? 89 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 00:32
From the "pros", lul 87 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:43
Did it all for you 87 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 01:58
Visit an echo chamber? 84 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:21
I'm no mental health professional 79 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:14
Clearly 76 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 22:59
Mental health 76 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:34
Re: Mental health 80 Sirfiroth 23-Aug-19 16:32
Re: Mental health 89 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:57
CDC Mental health advice for cowboys 77 drrayeye 24-Aug-19 03:08
Re: About what I expected 99 OCaptain 22-Aug-19 12:28
zzzz 83 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 23:11
Talk to NASA and the IPCC 70 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:36
Re: Talk to NASA and the IPCC 119 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:48
Way better 80 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 08:35
Re: zzzz 77 OCaptain 23-Aug-19 11:35
But it's your faith?! 73 Buck 45 23-Aug-19 22:13
Re: But it's your faith?! 74 OCaptain 24-Aug-19 12:17
Denmark and Greenland 62 greengirl5 30-Aug-19 00:13
Re: Denmark and Greenland 70 Aine 30-Aug-19 00:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 102 Lee McGiffen 22-Aug-19 13:10
Duuuuuuumb 98 Archaic 22-Aug-19 23:11
Re: Duuuuuuumb 89 Aine 22-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Duuuuuuumb 96 Archaic 23-Aug-19 00:02
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 85 muppedo 23-Aug-19 22:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 85 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:04
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 85 muppedo 25-Aug-19 02:42
Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 113 Lee McGiffen 24-Aug-19 13:28
Re: Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 104 Aine 24-Aug-19 19:28
Cenk Uygur on Trump's Lunacy 85 Lee McGiffen 29-Aug-19 04:01
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 81 Lost_In_Place 30-Aug-19 08:53
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 78 Aine 30-Aug-19 16:50
Mar-a-Key Largo, starring Donald Trump 70 Lee McGiffen 02-Sep-19 09:16


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