Global Village :  The Official GrahamHancock.com forums
For good-natured and mutually-respectful discussions of politics and current affairs. Soap-boxing and the promotion of extremist causes motivated by hate will not be tolerated by our moderators. 
Welcome! Log InRegister
Hi Paul, here is an analysis of recent bond moves by Bob Carlson:

“There are a lot of ways to measure the strong performance of long-term treasuries. The long-term U.S. government bond has had its best performance ever to this point in the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In addition, this month likely will end as the best monthly performance for the long bond since August 2011. And this is likely to be the 19th month, since 1987, in which long-term treasuries returned at least 10 percentage points more than the S&P 500.

The yield on the 30-year treasury declined below 2% and also below the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The latter hasn’t happened since March 2009. The only times the S&P 500 dividend yield has exceeded the 30-year treasury yield were this week and several times during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Historically, a period of strong outperformance by the long-term bond usually is followed by solid returns for stocks. But, historically, bond outperformance is associated with significant declines in stocks and recessions. Those conditions aren’t present now, so it’s not a good idea to count on a big, sustained bounce in stocks.

Instead, this decline in treasury yields means investors are convinced growth and inflation will be low for some time. It also represents a flight to safety as investors worry about trade conflicts and other geopolitical problems. “

Bob mentions weak growth and low inflation for the decline in bond prices. I would add the demographic aging of the world population as also one cause. As folks get older they spend less and try to conserve capital bynmoving from risk assets to bonds and bond substitutes. This aging is ramping up. Seniors are buying bonds, which paradoxically hurts their need for interest and dividends. However, that may be, it is about supply and demand, the governments do not want our money! Or they don’t want to pay for it! As the populations continue to age, interest rates will continue to decline and the Fed. reserve banks around the world will be lowering interest rates. Ours to! It is just a matter of time.

As a matter of policy, if I was the Pres, I would focus on the youth and family formation. If you have three kids - no taxes for twenty years or some such. I would help with student loans as well.

All the senior citizens I know are doing just fine, thus my focus is on the youth. Hope this helps.

Options: ReplyQuote


Subject Views Written By Posted
Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 1569 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 152 Warwick 21-Aug-19 16:47
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 166 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:56
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 158 OCaptain 21-Aug-19 17:27
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 146 Warwick 21-Aug-19 17:32
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 202 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 139 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:34
Blood Libel 153 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:03
Re: Blood Libel 168 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:14
Re: Blood Libel 157 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:39
Re: Blood Libel 133 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 15:56
Re: Blood Libel 143 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:08
Re: Blood Libel 131 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 16:15
Re: Blood Libel 110 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:26
Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 120 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 22:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 134 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 109 Eddie Larry 28-Aug-19 17:02
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 112 Aine 29-Aug-19 13:14
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 131 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 20:03
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 99 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 20:54
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 120 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 23:52
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 117 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:41
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 110 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 14:00
Recession Republicanism 114 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 14:33
Re: Recession Republicanism 110 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 18:39
Re: Recession Republicanism 104 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 19:09
Re: Recession Republicanism 94 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:23
Re: Recession Republicanismo 124 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 16:49
Re: Recession Republicanismo 99 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 105 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:13
Re: Recession Republicanismo 95 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 109 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:46
Re: Recession Republicanismo 110 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 14:05
Re: Recession Republicanismo 109 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:15
Re: Recession Republicanismo 95 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 15:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 109 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:35
Re: Recession Republicanismo 96 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 12:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 112 Eddie Larry 02-Sep-19 14:45
Re: Recession Republicanismo 91 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 20:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 120 Eddie Larry 03-Sep-19 00:06
Re: Recession Republicanismo 99 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 14:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 117 Aine 01-Sep-19 15:41
Re: Recession Republicanismo 108 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 22:59
Re: Recession Republicanismo 100 Aine 03-Sep-19 17:41
Automation 94 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 20:24
Re: Automation 119 Aine 03-Sep-19 22:20
Re: Recession Republicanismo 92 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 23:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 103 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:04
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 104 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 21:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 111 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:46
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 107 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:44
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 105 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 13:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 141 Nolondil 30-Aug-19 22:18
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 104 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 23:15
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 103 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 00:00
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 108 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:39
Re: Blood Libel 128 adequatedane 23-Aug-19 22:16
Re: Blood Libel 128 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:02
Re: Blood Libel 138 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 11:37
Re: Blood Libel 139 Aine 24-Aug-19 12:38
Re: Blood Libel 133 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 23:28
Re: Blood Libel 126 Aine 25-Aug-19 01:11
Re: Blood Libel 128 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 14:14
Re: Blood Libel 141 Aine 25-Aug-19 15:36
“American Factory” 126 Eddie Larry 25-Aug-19 15:45
Re: “American Factory” 116 Aine 25-Aug-19 16:35
Re: “American Factory” 136 PB Bytes 25-Aug-19 17:39
Re: “American Factory” 139 Aine 25-Aug-19 17:55
Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 120 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 17:24
Re: Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 150 Nolondil 25-Aug-19 22:46
Re: Blood Libel 181 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:17
Re: Blood Libel 137 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:10
Re: Blood Libel 131 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:26
Re: Blood Libel 170 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:06
Re: Blood Libel 143 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:23
Re: Blood Libel 176 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:27
Re: Blood Libel 118 OCaptain 26-Aug-19 10:36
Re: Blood Libel 94 Aine 26-Aug-19 22:30
Re: Blood Libel 133 OCaptain 27-Aug-19 02:20
Re: Blood Libel 108 Aine 27-Aug-19 13:22
Re: Blood Libel 128 Aine 28-Aug-19 00:05
Re: Blood Libel 100 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:21
Re: Blood Libel 117 Aine 28-Aug-19 16:13
I know, I know! 127 Warwick 28-Aug-19 16:16
Re: I know, I know! 127 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:06
Re: I know, I know! 105 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:21
Re: I know, I know! 105 Aine 29-Aug-19 16:38
Re: I know, I know! 112 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:59
Re: Blood Libel 98 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:05
Re: Blood Libel 102 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:20
Re: Blood Libel 116 drrayeye 26-Aug-19 22:57
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 141 Racho 21-Aug-19 19:26
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 136 Aine 21-Aug-19 19:31
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 176 Warwick 21-Aug-19 19:42
Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 131 Racho 21-Aug-19 20:13
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 133 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:05
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 115 Racho 21-Aug-19 22:48
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 137 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:52
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 134 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:14
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 125 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:17
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 128 Racho 21-Aug-19 18:41
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 127 Aine 21-Aug-19 18:48
25th Amendment 153 Nolondil 21-Aug-19 21:14
Re: 25th Amendment 116 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:55
Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 131 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 21:56
Re: Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 135 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:07
About what I expected 135 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 22:36
Re: About what I expected 115 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:42
Whose panties be bunched? 134 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:35
Hodgetwins vs Lee 114 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 02:33
Hodges easy 111 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:13
You can lead a horse to water . . . 110 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:11
Re: About what I expected 120 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:24
Re: About what I expected 124 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:30
Aines Normal Disinformation 136 adequatedane 21-Aug-19 23:46
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 132 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 126 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 12:20
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 106 Aine 22-Aug-19 12:45
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 109 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 19:36
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 110 Aine 22-Aug-19 22:21
Re: Aine Lies 120 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 22:54
Thomas's question: Is Donald really bonkers? 142 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 00:32
From the "pros", lul 132 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:43
Did it all for you 121 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 01:58
Visit an echo chamber? 117 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:21
I'm no mental health professional 113 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:14
Clearly 139 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 22:59
Mental health 107 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:34
Re: Mental health 134 Sirfiroth 23-Aug-19 16:32
Re: Mental health 132 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:57
CDC Mental health advice for cowboys 130 drrayeye 24-Aug-19 03:08
Re: About what I expected 149 OCaptain 22-Aug-19 12:28
zzzz 137 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 23:11
Talk to NASA and the IPCC 112 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:36
Re: Talk to NASA and the IPCC 179 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:48
Way better 127 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 08:35
Re: zzzz 120 OCaptain 23-Aug-19 11:35
But it's your faith?! 121 Buck 45 23-Aug-19 22:13
Re: But it's your faith?! 115 OCaptain 24-Aug-19 12:17
Denmark and Greenland 103 greengirl5 30-Aug-19 00:13
Re: Denmark and Greenland 115 Aine 30-Aug-19 00:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 150 Lee McGiffen 22-Aug-19 13:10
Duuuuuuumb 160 Archaic 22-Aug-19 23:11
Re: Duuuuuuumb 138 Aine 22-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Duuuuuuumb 136 Archaic 23-Aug-19 00:02
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 136 muppedo 23-Aug-19 22:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 131 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:04
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 136 muppedo 25-Aug-19 02:42
Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 160 Lee McGiffen 24-Aug-19 13:28
Re: Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 150 Aine 24-Aug-19 19:28
Cenk Uygur on Trump's Lunacy 130 Lee McGiffen 29-Aug-19 04:01
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 135 Lost_In_Place 30-Aug-19 08:53
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 122 Aine 30-Aug-19 16:50
Mar-a-Key Largo, starring Donald Trump 112 Lee McGiffen 02-Sep-19 09:16


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.