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Hi Paul, here is an analysis of recent bond moves by Bob Carlson:

“There are a lot of ways to measure the strong performance of long-term treasuries. The long-term U.S. government bond has had its best performance ever to this point in the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In addition, this month likely will end as the best monthly performance for the long bond since August 2011. And this is likely to be the 19th month, since 1987, in which long-term treasuries returned at least 10 percentage points more than the S&P 500.

The yield on the 30-year treasury declined below 2% and also below the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The latter hasn’t happened since March 2009. The only times the S&P 500 dividend yield has exceeded the 30-year treasury yield were this week and several times during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Historically, a period of strong outperformance by the long-term bond usually is followed by solid returns for stocks. But, historically, bond outperformance is associated with significant declines in stocks and recessions. Those conditions aren’t present now, so it’s not a good idea to count on a big, sustained bounce in stocks.

Instead, this decline in treasury yields means investors are convinced growth and inflation will be low for some time. It also represents a flight to safety as investors worry about trade conflicts and other geopolitical problems. “

Bob mentions weak growth and low inflation for the decline in bond prices. I would add the demographic aging of the world population as also one cause. As folks get older they spend less and try to conserve capital bynmoving from risk assets to bonds and bond substitutes. This aging is ramping up. Seniors are buying bonds, which paradoxically hurts their need for interest and dividends. However, that may be, it is about supply and demand, the governments do not want our money! Or they don’t want to pay for it! As the populations continue to age, interest rates will continue to decline and the Fed. reserve banks around the world will be lowering interest rates. Ours to! It is just a matter of time.

As a matter of policy, if I was the Pres, I would focus on the youth and family formation. If you have three kids - no taxes for twenty years or some such. I would help with student loans as well.

All the senior citizens I know are doing just fine, thus my focus is on the youth. Hope this helps.

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Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 1526 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 130 Warwick 21-Aug-19 16:47
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 142 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:56
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 136 OCaptain 21-Aug-19 17:27
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 125 Warwick 21-Aug-19 17:32
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 168 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 118 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:34
Blood Libel 128 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:03
Re: Blood Libel 136 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:14
Re: Blood Libel 129 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:39
Re: Blood Libel 105 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 15:56
Re: Blood Libel 115 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:08
Re: Blood Libel 104 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 16:15
Re: Blood Libel 92 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:26
Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 98 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 22:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 110 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 88 Eddie Larry 28-Aug-19 17:02
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 92 Aine 29-Aug-19 13:14
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 105 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 20:03
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 79 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 20:54
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 96 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 23:52
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 94 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:41
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 90 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 14:00
Recession Republicanism 93 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 14:33
Re: Recession Republicanism 85 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 18:39
Re: Recession Republicanism 81 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 19:09
Re: Recession Republicanism 78 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:23
Re: Recession Republicanismo 89 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 16:49
Re: Recession Republicanismo 81 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 78 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:13
Re: Recession Republicanismo 72 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 81 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:46
Re: Recession Republicanismo 88 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 14:05
Re: Recession Republicanismo 83 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:15
Re: Recession Republicanismo 77 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 15:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 85 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:35
Re: Recession Republicanismo 77 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 12:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 88 Eddie Larry 02-Sep-19 14:45
Re: Recession Republicanismo 73 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 20:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 89 Eddie Larry 03-Sep-19 00:06
Re: Recession Republicanismo 77 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 14:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 89 Aine 01-Sep-19 15:41
Re: Recession Republicanismo 88 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 22:59
Re: Recession Republicanismo 77 Aine 03-Sep-19 17:41
Automation 73 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 20:24
Re: Automation 92 Aine 03-Sep-19 22:20
Re: Recession Republicanismo 72 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 23:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 82 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:04
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 84 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 21:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 90 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:46
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 92 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:44
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 88 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 13:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 113 Nolondil 30-Aug-19 22:18
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 85 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 23:15
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 77 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 00:00
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 87 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:39
Re: Blood Libel 104 adequatedane 23-Aug-19 22:16
Re: Blood Libel 106 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:02
Re: Blood Libel 115 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 11:37
Re: Blood Libel 116 Aine 24-Aug-19 12:38
Re: Blood Libel 110 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 23:28
Re: Blood Libel 103 Aine 25-Aug-19 01:11
Re: Blood Libel 103 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 14:14
Re: Blood Libel 117 Aine 25-Aug-19 15:36
“American Factory” 100 Eddie Larry 25-Aug-19 15:45
Re: “American Factory” 99 Aine 25-Aug-19 16:35
Re: “American Factory” 110 Poster Boy 25-Aug-19 17:39
Re: “American Factory” 116 Aine 25-Aug-19 17:55
Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 102 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 17:24
Re: Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 120 Nolondil 25-Aug-19 22:46
Re: Blood Libel 153 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:17
Re: Blood Libel 117 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:10
Re: Blood Libel 104 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:26
Re: Blood Libel 141 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:06
Re: Blood Libel 120 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:23
Re: Blood Libel 137 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:27
Re: Blood Libel 95 OCaptain 26-Aug-19 10:36
Re: Blood Libel 74 Aine 26-Aug-19 22:30
Re: Blood Libel 106 OCaptain 27-Aug-19 02:20
Re: Blood Libel 89 Aine 27-Aug-19 13:22
Re: Blood Libel 97 Aine 28-Aug-19 00:05
Re: Blood Libel 77 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:21
Re: Blood Libel 89 Aine 28-Aug-19 16:13
I know, I know! 105 Warwick 28-Aug-19 16:16
Re: I know, I know! 102 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:06
Re: I know, I know! 83 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:21
Re: I know, I know! 85 Aine 29-Aug-19 16:38
Re: I know, I know! 91 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:59
Re: Blood Libel 81 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:05
Re: Blood Libel 80 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:20
Re: Blood Libel 96 drrayeye 26-Aug-19 22:57
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 121 Racho 21-Aug-19 19:26
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 113 Aine 21-Aug-19 19:31
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 127 Warwick 21-Aug-19 19:42
Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 109 Racho 21-Aug-19 20:13
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 112 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:05
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 97 Racho 21-Aug-19 22:48
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 115 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:52
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 114 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:14
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 106 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:17
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 106 Racho 21-Aug-19 18:41
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 103 Aine 21-Aug-19 18:48
25th Amendment 123 Nolondil 21-Aug-19 21:14
Re: 25th Amendment 96 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:55
Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 112 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 21:56
Re: Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 114 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:07
About what I expected 113 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 22:36
Re: About what I expected 95 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:42
Whose panties be bunched? 111 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:35
Hodgetwins vs Lee 94 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 02:33
Hodges easy 89 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:13
You can lead a horse to water . . . 86 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:11
Re: About what I expected 105 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:24
Re: About what I expected 102 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:30
Aines Normal Disinformation 111 adequatedane 21-Aug-19 23:46
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 107 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 98 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 12:20
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 86 Aine 22-Aug-19 12:45
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 87 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 19:36
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 80 Aine 22-Aug-19 22:21
Re: Aine Lies 94 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 22:54
Thomas's question: Is Donald really bonkers? 110 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 00:32
From the "pros", lul 107 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:43
Did it all for you 100 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 01:58
Visit an echo chamber? 97 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:21
I'm no mental health professional 87 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:14
Clearly 100 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 22:59
Mental health 87 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:34
Re: Mental health 102 Sirfiroth 23-Aug-19 16:32
Re: Mental health 108 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:57
CDC Mental health advice for cowboys 107 drrayeye 24-Aug-19 03:08
Re: About what I expected 123 OCaptain 22-Aug-19 12:28
zzzz 109 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 23:11
Talk to NASA and the IPCC 89 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:36
Re: Talk to NASA and the IPCC 144 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:48
Way better 103 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 08:35
Re: zzzz 99 OCaptain 23-Aug-19 11:35
But it's your faith?! 93 Buck 45 23-Aug-19 22:13
Re: But it's your faith?! 93 OCaptain 24-Aug-19 12:17
Denmark and Greenland 81 greengirl5 30-Aug-19 00:13
Re: Denmark and Greenland 93 Aine 30-Aug-19 00:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 126 Lee McGiffen 22-Aug-19 13:10
Duuuuuuumb 127 Archaic 22-Aug-19 23:11
Re: Duuuuuuumb 108 Aine 22-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Duuuuuuumb 115 Archaic 23-Aug-19 00:02
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 114 muppedo 23-Aug-19 22:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 106 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:04
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 107 muppedo 25-Aug-19 02:42
Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 135 Lee McGiffen 24-Aug-19 13:28
Re: Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 126 Aine 24-Aug-19 19:28
Cenk Uygur on Trump's Lunacy 108 Lee McGiffen 29-Aug-19 04:01
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 102 Lost_In_Place 30-Aug-19 08:53
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 100 Aine 30-Aug-19 16:50
Mar-a-Key Largo, starring Donald Trump 92 Lee McGiffen 02-Sep-19 09:16


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