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Hi Paul, here is an analysis of recent bond moves by Bob Carlson:

“There are a lot of ways to measure the strong performance of long-term treasuries. The long-term U.S. government bond has had its best performance ever to this point in the year, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

In addition, this month likely will end as the best monthly performance for the long bond since August 2011. And this is likely to be the 19th month, since 1987, in which long-term treasuries returned at least 10 percentage points more than the S&P 500.

The yield on the 30-year treasury declined below 2% and also below the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The latter hasn’t happened since March 2009. The only times the S&P 500 dividend yield has exceeded the 30-year treasury yield were this week and several times during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009.

Historically, a period of strong outperformance by the long-term bond usually is followed by solid returns for stocks. But, historically, bond outperformance is associated with significant declines in stocks and recessions. Those conditions aren’t present now, so it’s not a good idea to count on a big, sustained bounce in stocks.

Instead, this decline in treasury yields means investors are convinced growth and inflation will be low for some time. It also represents a flight to safety as investors worry about trade conflicts and other geopolitical problems. “

Bob mentions weak growth and low inflation for the decline in bond prices. I would add the demographic aging of the world population as also one cause. As folks get older they spend less and try to conserve capital bynmoving from risk assets to bonds and bond substitutes. This aging is ramping up. Seniors are buying bonds, which paradoxically hurts their need for interest and dividends. However, that may be, it is about supply and demand, the governments do not want our money! Or they don’t want to pay for it! As the populations continue to age, interest rates will continue to decline and the Fed. reserve banks around the world will be lowering interest rates. Ours to! It is just a matter of time.

As a matter of policy, if I was the Pres, I would focus on the youth and family formation. If you have three kids - no taxes for twenty years or some such. I would help with student loans as well.

All the senior citizens I know are doing just fine, thus my focus is on the youth. Hope this helps.

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Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 1548 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 142 Warwick 21-Aug-19 16:47
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 157 Aine 21-Aug-19 16:56
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 146 OCaptain 21-Aug-19 17:27
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 137 Warwick 21-Aug-19 17:32
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 190 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:38
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 132 Aine 21-Aug-19 17:34
Blood Libel 143 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:03
Re: Blood Libel 152 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:14
Re: Blood Libel 146 Aine 23-Aug-19 15:39
Re: Blood Libel 121 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 15:56
Re: Blood Libel 131 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:08
Re: Blood Libel 119 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 16:15
Re: Blood Libel 103 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:26
Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 111 Eddie Larry 23-Aug-19 22:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 124 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 101 Eddie Larry 28-Aug-19 17:02
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 104 Aine 29-Aug-19 13:14
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 120 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 20:03
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 91 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 20:54
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 111 Nolondil 29-Aug-19 23:52
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 107 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:41
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 101 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 14:00
Recession Republicanism 105 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 14:33
Re: Recession Republicanism 100 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 18:39
Re: Recession Republicanism 95 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 19:09
Re: Recession Republicanism 88 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:23
Re: Recession Republicanismo 102 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 16:49
Re: Recession Republicanismo 92 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 93 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:13
Re: Recession Republicanismo 84 Warwick 31-Aug-19 17:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 97 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 17:46
Re: Recession Republicanismo 101 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 14:05
Re: Recession Republicanismo 95 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:15
Re: Recession Republicanismo 87 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 15:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 101 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 15:35
Re: Recession Republicanismo 89 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 12:43
Re: Recession Republicanismo 103 Eddie Larry 02-Sep-19 14:45
Re: Recession Republicanismo 83 adequatedane 02-Sep-19 20:29
Re: Recession Republicanismo 106 Eddie Larry 03-Sep-19 00:06
Re: Recession Republicanismo 88 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 14:01
Re: Recession Republicanismo 103 Aine 01-Sep-19 15:41
Re: Recession Republicanismo 100 adequatedane 01-Sep-19 22:59
Re: Recession Republicanismo 91 Aine 03-Sep-19 17:41
Automation 85 adequatedane 03-Sep-19 20:24
Re: Automation 108 Aine 03-Sep-19 22:20
Re: Recession Republicanismo 83 Eddie Larry 01-Sep-19 23:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 95 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:04
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 97 Eddie Larry 29-Aug-19 21:12
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 102 Aine 29-Aug-19 21:46
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 100 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 04:44
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 98 adequatedane 30-Aug-19 13:32
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 129 Nolondil 30-Aug-19 22:18
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 97 Eddie Larry 30-Aug-19 23:15
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 86 Eddie Larry 31-Aug-19 00:00
Re: Trump slaps retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods 101 adequatedane 31-Aug-19 13:39
Re: Blood Libel 117 adequatedane 23-Aug-19 22:16
Re: Blood Libel 118 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:02
Re: Blood Libel 128 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 11:37
Re: Blood Libel 128 Aine 24-Aug-19 12:38
Re: Blood Libel 121 adequatedane 24-Aug-19 23:28
Re: Blood Libel 115 Aine 25-Aug-19 01:11
Re: Blood Libel 116 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 14:14
Re: Blood Libel 128 Aine 25-Aug-19 15:36
“American Factory” 110 Eddie Larry 25-Aug-19 15:45
Re: “American Factory” 110 Aine 25-Aug-19 16:35
Re: “American Factory” 123 Poster Boy 25-Aug-19 17:39
Re: “American Factory” 129 Aine 25-Aug-19 17:55
Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 112 adequatedane 25-Aug-19 17:24
Re: Japan Agrees to Purchase $7 billion in US Ag Products 136 Nolondil 25-Aug-19 22:46
Re: Blood Libel 170 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:17
Re: Blood Libel 129 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:10
Re: Blood Libel 117 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:26
Re: Blood Libel 155 Archaic 23-Aug-19 22:06
Re: Blood Libel 134 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:23
Re: Blood Libel 162 Archaic 25-Aug-19 11:27
Re: Blood Libel 107 OCaptain 26-Aug-19 10:36
Re: Blood Libel 86 Aine 26-Aug-19 22:30
Re: Blood Libel 123 OCaptain 27-Aug-19 02:20
Re: Blood Libel 101 Aine 27-Aug-19 13:22
Re: Blood Libel 115 Aine 28-Aug-19 00:05
Re: Blood Libel 89 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:21
Re: Blood Libel 103 Aine 28-Aug-19 16:13
I know, I know! 117 Warwick 28-Aug-19 16:16
Re: I know, I know! 113 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:06
Re: I know, I know! 98 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:21
Re: I know, I know! 96 Aine 29-Aug-19 16:38
Re: I know, I know! 103 Warwick 29-Aug-19 16:59
Re: Blood Libel 91 Archaic 29-Aug-19 14:05
Re: Blood Libel 94 Archaic 28-Aug-19 15:20
Re: Blood Libel 107 drrayeye 26-Aug-19 22:57
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 133 Racho 21-Aug-19 19:26
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 128 Aine 21-Aug-19 19:31
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 141 Warwick 21-Aug-19 19:42
Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 123 Racho 21-Aug-19 20:13
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 124 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:05
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 106 Racho 21-Aug-19 22:48
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 127 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:52
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 126 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:14
Re: Pragmatic...is that doublespeak for dishonest? 117 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:17
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 120 Racho 21-Aug-19 18:41
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 117 Aine 21-Aug-19 18:48
25th Amendment 140 Nolondil 21-Aug-19 21:14
Re: 25th Amendment 109 Aine 21-Aug-19 21:55
Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 124 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 21:56
Re: Oh Julia, you make us laugh.... 123 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:07
About what I expected 125 Buck 45 21-Aug-19 22:36
Re: About what I expected 106 Aine 21-Aug-19 22:42
Whose panties be bunched? 125 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:35
Hodgetwins vs Lee 107 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 02:33
Hodges easy 102 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:13
You can lead a horse to water . . . 100 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:11
Re: About what I expected 114 Racho 21-Aug-19 23:24
Re: About what I expected 116 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:30
Aines Normal Disinformation 124 adequatedane 21-Aug-19 23:46
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 123 Aine 21-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 116 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 12:20
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 97 Aine 22-Aug-19 12:45
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 101 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 19:36
Re: Aines Normal Disinformation 93 Aine 22-Aug-19 22:21
Re: Aine Lies 111 adequatedane 22-Aug-19 22:54
Thomas's question: Is Donald really bonkers? 125 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 00:32
From the "pros", lul 123 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 00:43
Did it all for you 113 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 01:58
Visit an echo chamber? 110 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 03:21
I'm no mental health professional 99 drrayeye 22-Aug-19 05:14
Clearly 119 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 22:59
Mental health 100 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:34
Re: Mental health 118 Sirfiroth 23-Aug-19 16:32
Re: Mental health 121 Aine 23-Aug-19 16:57
CDC Mental health advice for cowboys 122 drrayeye 24-Aug-19 03:08
Re: About what I expected 137 OCaptain 22-Aug-19 12:28
zzzz 129 Buck 45 22-Aug-19 23:11
Talk to NASA and the IPCC 104 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 01:36
Re: Talk to NASA and the IPCC 159 Archaic 23-Aug-19 01:48
Way better 117 drrayeye 23-Aug-19 08:35
Re: zzzz 112 OCaptain 23-Aug-19 11:35
But it's your faith?! 111 Buck 45 23-Aug-19 22:13
Re: But it's your faith?! 106 OCaptain 24-Aug-19 12:17
Denmark and Greenland 93 greengirl5 30-Aug-19 00:13
Re: Denmark and Greenland 104 Aine 30-Aug-19 00:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 139 Lee McGiffen 22-Aug-19 13:10
Duuuuuuumb 143 Archaic 22-Aug-19 23:11
Re: Duuuuuuumb 120 Aine 22-Aug-19 23:57
Re: Duuuuuuumb 129 Archaic 23-Aug-19 00:02
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 127 muppedo 23-Aug-19 22:43
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 123 Aine 24-Aug-19 02:04
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 120 muppedo 25-Aug-19 02:42
Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 149 Lee McGiffen 24-Aug-19 13:28
Re: Frank Herbert's prescience on Trump 141 Aine 24-Aug-19 19:28
Cenk Uygur on Trump's Lunacy 121 Lee McGiffen 29-Aug-19 04:01
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 120 Lost_In_Place 30-Aug-19 08:53
Re: Get the straitjacket and padded cell ready 114 Aine 30-Aug-19 16:50
Mar-a-Key Largo, starring Donald Trump 104 Lee McGiffen 02-Sep-19 09:16


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