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drrayeye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> than to question the 97% figure when it comes from
> scientists, John. It won't be difficult to track
> down the published sources, and it has nothing to
> do with statistics.
>
> Ray

I just said to look it up. You are too smug and lazy to do so. So here are the facts.
1. The 97% number came from John Cook. He was a web and database programmer. He created a blog called "Skeptical Science". He eventually became an an assistant professor at George Mason University. He joined the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute. He has no degrees in climate science. He did not get a PhD until 2016, when he received a PhD in Cognitive Science at the University of Western Australia.
2. His published paper claiming 97% consensus was found to be false. Only 65 out of the 12,271 published climate abstracts Cook examined explicitly stated that Man caused most of the warming since 1950.
3. To bolster his claim, he proceeded to exclude 8,261 of the 12,271 abstracts from his own study. He excluded these because they took no position.
4. He did not even analyze the papers themselves, but only the abstracts of the papers.
5. He then claimed (in his blog) the 97% applied to all of the 12,271 published abstracts, ignoring that he had rejected 8,261 of them before applying his calculation.
6. But in his own paper, he asserted that "Among abstracts that expressed a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the scientific consensus".
7. He then used his blog to claim that the 97% consensus was "robust". The publicity of the false 97% number was based on MSM citations from this guy's own blog.

This is how one lies with statistics. The scientific community as a whole rejects this not even a climate scientist crap "study" that was publicized on his own blog. Even real climate scientists who believe in AGW reject this study.

Here is how he lied with statistics, using the following criteria (his own criteria):
He had 7 categories in total: 1-3 explicitly endorsed or implicitly endorsed (implicitly means does not directly assert Mankind causes AGW, but means supports the IPCC or supports the concept that CO2 will enhance global warming). Categories 5-7 explicitly or implicitly rejected. He added those 2 categories together, divided the sum of 1-3 by the sum of the total of (1-3) + (5-7), to get 97%. He excluded category 4 (neutral).
Only 65 abstracts clearly "mention that human activity is a dominant influence or has caused most of recent climate change (>50%)". The rest simply endorsed the IPCC or other factors like CO2. He wrapped those papers together to get his 97%.

Here are the raw numbers of abstracts, by category:
Category 1: 65 (explicitly support AGW)
Category 2: 934 (implicitly support)
Category 3: 2933 (more weakly implicitly support)
Category 4: 8261 (neutral)
Category 5: 53 (more weakly implicitly reject)
Category 6: 15 (implicitly reject)
Category 7: 10 (explicitly reject)
Total: 12271
(65 + 934 + 2933) / (65 + 934 + 2933 + 53 + 15 + 10) = 98%. (This was rounded down to 97% in Cook's paper due to rejecting some of the above abstracts from the calculation.)

But notice the included abstracts are in total, less than the neutral abstracts by a factor of 2!

In conclusion: only 65 of the total 12,271 abstracts actually explicitly endorsed AGW. Yet by his manipulation of statistics, he concluded 97% of all scientists support AGW.

Here is the real statistic, using his assessment of abstracts (not even the papers): (65 + 934 + 2933) / 12,271 = 32% that either explicitly (65 / 12,271 = 0.5%) or implicitly (934 + 2933) / 12,271 = 31.5%) support. Therefore 100% - 32% = 68% do not either explicitly or implicitly support.

Go do your own research instead of blithely accepting anything that matches your own preconceived conceptions.
However, I do not expect you to do this because (a) you don't do math and (b) you don't do your own research and (c) you reject anything that does not reinforce your preconceptions.

However, for the rest of the readers of this site, the above information may be helpful to you.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 21-Apr-19 20:38 by Race Jackson.

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Subject Views Written By Posted
Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 1340 grangram 20-Apr-19 14:38
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 173 Archaic 20-Apr-19 15:15
It's not a matter of personal opinion 162 drrayeye 20-Apr-19 15:43
Re: It's not a matter of personal opinion 197 Archaic 20-Apr-19 16:00
I'm sure your opinion 155 drrayeye 20-Apr-19 17:00
Re: I'm sure your opinion 127 Archaic 20-Apr-19 21:31
Re: I'm sure your opinion 140 Eddie Larry 20-Apr-19 21:34
Re: I'm sure your opinion 128 Archaic 20-Apr-19 21:39
Re: I'm sure your opinion 117 Eddie Larry 20-Apr-19 21:50
Re: I'm sure your opinion 124 Archaic 21-Apr-19 03:07
Re: I'm sure your opinion 112 Eddie Larry 21-Apr-19 04:08
Re: I'm sure your opinion 106 Racho 22-Apr-19 03:29
Re: I'm sure your opinion 106 Eddie Larry 22-Apr-19 19:31
Re: I'm sure your opinion 108 Racho 22-Apr-19 19:37
Re: I'm sure your opinion 103 Eddie Larry 22-Apr-19 20:05
Don't forget the Lord 111 drrayeye 22-Apr-19 23:13
Re: Don't forget the Lord 98 Racho 23-Apr-19 20:35
or "Galileo" Perry on global warming 99 drrayeye 23-Apr-19 21:00
Re: I'm sure your opinion 106 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:10
Re: I'm sure your opinion 103 muppedo 09-May-19 00:21
Re: I'm sure your opinion 95 Archaic 10-May-19 11:24
Canadian Firefighters see things differently 132 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 02:21
Re: Canadian Firefighters see things differently 158 Archaic 27-Apr-19 02:29
Maybe you could take up canoeing? 136 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 04:31
Re: Maybe you could take up canoeing? 108 Archaic 29-Apr-19 12:42
Here ya go one science guy plus 96 others 87 grangram 08-May-19 16:29
Re: Here ya go one science guy plus 96 others 91 Archaic 10-May-19 11:27
What are your qualifications? 78 grangram 13-May-19 09:14
Re: What are your qualifications? 81 Archaic 13-May-19 11:17
argumentation--ad nauseum 81 drrayeye 13-May-19 17:54
Re: argumentation--ad nauseum 77 Archaic 25-May-19 03:12
Countermeasures 62 drrayeye 26-May-19 01:56
Just a little rain? Just tell them that in Nebraska. 143 grangram 27-Apr-19 08:52
Re: Just a little rain? Just tell them that in Nebraska. 112 Archaic 29-Apr-19 12:44
Countermeasures 79 drrayeye 03-May-19 19:26
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 183 grangram 20-Apr-19 17:25
How to Lie with Statistics 121 Race Jackson 20-Apr-19 19:32
You should know better 105 drrayeye 21-Apr-19 05:43
Wrong, wrong, and ignorantly wrong because you refuse to do your own research 115 Race Jackson 21-Apr-19 20:36
Superficial as usual 106 drrayeye 21-Apr-19 21:52
The North West Passage? 114 grangram 26-Apr-19 14:39
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 127 Archaic 20-Apr-19 21:32
Just ask Donald Trump 142 drrayeye 21-Apr-19 05:46
Re: Just ask Donald Trump 95 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:11
Wrong question 87 drrayeye 26-May-19 15:14
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 107 Race Jackson 22-Apr-19 05:20
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 105 Warwick 22-Apr-19 19:25
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 104 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:19
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 123 Lee McGiffen 21-Apr-19 04:21
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 102 Redwood1 21-Apr-19 23:44
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 106 Redwood1 21-Apr-19 23:46
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 105 Redwood1 21-Apr-19 23:50
When we were Republican and smart in SOCAL 103 drrayeye 22-Apr-19 02:37
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 96 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:20
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 141 grangram 26-Apr-19 17:39
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 76 harryL 13-May-19 10:24
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 129 Redwood1 22-Apr-19 00:08
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 126 Eddie Larry 22-Apr-19 01:33
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 104 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:25
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 116 Eddie Larry 23-Apr-19 22:24
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 106 Archaic 23-Apr-19 22:38
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 102 Eddie Larry 23-Apr-19 22:46
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 100 Archaic 23-Apr-19 23:30
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 100 Eddie Larry 23-Apr-19 23:33
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 107 Archaic 24-Apr-19 01:10
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 132 Eddie Larry 24-Apr-19 01:18
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 135 Archaic 24-Apr-19 01:30
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 105 Eddie Larry 24-Apr-19 02:33
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 111 Archaic 24-Apr-19 02:42
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 110 Eddie Larry 24-Apr-19 02:47
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 131 Lee McGiffen 22-Apr-19 03:49
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 138 Brian Patterson 22-Apr-19 04:15
He's Australian 107 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 01:48
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 120 ldennyjr 27-Apr-19 21:06
Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 134 grangram 27-Apr-19 21:50
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 112 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 14:11
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 107 drrayeye 28-Apr-19 15:28
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 106 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 17:58
Why didn't you answer the question ? 131 grangram 28-Apr-19 15:37
Re: Why didn't you answer the question ? 122 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 17:47
still didn't answer the questions. 118 grangram 28-Apr-19 20:50
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 86 ldennyjr 29-Apr-19 02:18
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 83 drrayeye 29-Apr-19 05:11
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 93 ldennyjr 29-Apr-19 12:06
Better than Rip Van Winkle 83 drrayeye 29-Apr-19 16:38
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 87 Eddie Larry 29-Apr-19 16:45
and some beans 87 drrayeye 29-Apr-19 19:01
sweet dreams! 84 grangram 30-Apr-19 16:01
Re: sweet dreams! 86 ldennyjr 04-May-19 13:26
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 100 Archaic 28-Apr-19 16:20
glad you posted 94 grangram 28-Apr-19 17:53
Re: glad you posted 117 Archaic 29-Apr-19 12:50
So your a nurse then? 93 grangram 29-Apr-19 13:24
Re: So your a nurse then? 91 Archaic 30-Apr-19 11:39
Progrssivism is a religion??? 90 grangram 30-Apr-19 14:07
Re: Progrssivism is a religion??? 88 Archaic 01-May-19 20:58
Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 103 drrayeye 01-May-19 21:10
Re: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 122 Archaic 02-May-19 00:55
Re: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 95 grangram 08-May-19 13:35
Re: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 91 Archaic 10-May-19 11:29
Opinion books 98 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 22:24
Re: Opinion books 111 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 03:01
A great place to start 107 drrayeye 28-Apr-19 04:57
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 92 muppedo 03-May-19 22:31
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 89 ldennyjr 04-May-19 18:50
CO2 is a marker, not a cause 88 drrayeye 04-May-19 20:56
Re: CO2 is a marker, not a cause 80 ldennyjr 05-May-19 03:59
That's because 77 drrayeye 05-May-19 05:45
Re: That's because 86 ldennyjr 05-May-19 13:35
I gave you two links 76 drrayeye 05-May-19 14:18
Re: I gave you two links 91 ldennyjr 05-May-19 16:55
If you would have said that 30 years ago, 85 drrayeye 06-May-19 00:41
Re: If you would have said that 30 years ago, 81 WhoWeird 06-May-19 02:08
Re: If you would have said that 30 years ago, 82 drrayeye 06-May-19 05:29
Re: If you would have said that 30 years ago, 81 Archaic 10-May-19 11:48
Re: I gave you two links 80 Archaic 10-May-19 11:46
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 101 Lee McGiffen 05-May-19 05:56
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 90 ldennyjr 05-May-19 13:27
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 91 ldennyjr 09-May-19 16:39
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 86 muppedo 09-May-19 23:38
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 90 ldennyjr 10-May-19 02:57
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 79 muppedo 11-May-19 22:37
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 79 ldennyjr 12-May-19 18:41
At least you're honest 76 drrayeye 12-May-19 22:32
Re: At least you're honest 76 WhoWeird 12-May-19 22:34
Mike's law 78 drrayeye 12-May-19 22:58
Re: Mike's law 75 WhoWeird 12-May-19 23:44
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 89 Archaic 10-May-19 11:50
My Apple Pie advice 109 drrayeye 30-Apr-19 21:35
Re: My Apple Pie advice 103 Archaic 02-May-19 01:00
Re: My Apple Pie advice 106 drrayeye 02-May-19 03:50
UK Parliament declares climate change emergency 106 drrayeye 02-May-19 00:07
Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 92 grangram 08-May-19 10:03
Garbage 92 drrayeye 08-May-19 13:38
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 93 muppedo 09-May-19 00:17
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 92 drrayeye 09-May-19 06:00
LOL 94 Sirfiroth 09-May-19 13:38
Just because Roy Spencer 89 drrayeye 09-May-19 17:30
If you would bother to read, you might find out 106 Sirfiroth 09-May-19 19:23
I live in California 90 drrayeye 09-May-19 23:06
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 91 muppedo 09-May-19 23:56
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 86 drrayeye 10-May-19 05:28
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 96 grangram 09-May-19 16:25
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 112 Archaic 10-May-19 12:33
No nuclear--no problem 84 drrayeye 11-May-19 13:48
Re: No nuclear--no problem 85 Archaic 12-May-19 23:04
Not everyone 78 drrayeye 12-May-19 23:28
Re: Not everyone 88 Archaic 12-May-19 23:33
Re: Not everyone 85 molder 13-May-19 10:11
Re: Not everyone 92 Archaic 13-May-19 11:25
Re: Not everyone 100 harryL 13-May-19 12:02
Re: Not everyone 96 drrayeye 15-May-19 03:20
Britain's first climate refugees 80 drrayeye 19-May-19 04:37
Climate Change and Brexit 70 drrayeye 25-May-19 00:14
UK and Trump miles apart on climate change 111 drrayeye 03-Jun-19 03:31


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