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drrayeye Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> than to question the 97% figure when it comes from
> scientists, John. It won't be difficult to track
> down the published sources, and it has nothing to
> do with statistics.
>
> Ray

I just said to look it up. You are too smug and lazy to do so. So here are the facts.
1. The 97% number came from John Cook. He was a web and database programmer. He created a blog called "Skeptical Science". He eventually became an an assistant professor at George Mason University. He joined the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute. He has no degrees in climate science. He did not get a PhD until 2016, when he received a PhD in Cognitive Science at the University of Western Australia.
2. His published paper claiming 97% consensus was found to be false. Only 65 out of the 12,271 published climate abstracts Cook examined explicitly stated that Man caused most of the warming since 1950.
3. To bolster his claim, he proceeded to exclude 8,261 of the 12,271 abstracts from his own study. He excluded these because they took no position.
4. He did not even analyze the papers themselves, but only the abstracts of the papers.
5. He then claimed (in his blog) the 97% applied to all of the 12,271 published abstracts, ignoring that he had rejected 8,261 of them before applying his calculation.
6. But in his own paper, he asserted that "Among abstracts that expressed a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the scientific consensus".
7. He then used his blog to claim that the 97% consensus was "robust". The publicity of the false 97% number was based on MSM citations from this guy's own blog.

This is how one lies with statistics. The scientific community as a whole rejects this not even a climate scientist crap "study" that was publicized on his own blog. Even real climate scientists who believe in AGW reject this study.

Here is how he lied with statistics, using the following criteria (his own criteria):
He had 7 categories in total: 1-3 explicitly endorsed or implicitly endorsed (implicitly means does not directly assert Mankind causes AGW, but means supports the IPCC or supports the concept that CO2 will enhance global warming). Categories 5-7 explicitly or implicitly rejected. He added those 2 categories together, divided the sum of 1-3 by the sum of the total of (1-3) + (5-7), to get 97%. He excluded category 4 (neutral).
Only 65 abstracts clearly "mention that human activity is a dominant influence or has caused most of recent climate change (>50%)". The rest simply endorsed the IPCC or other factors like CO2. He wrapped those papers together to get his 97%.

Here are the raw numbers of abstracts, by category:
Category 1: 65 (explicitly support AGW)
Category 2: 934 (implicitly support)
Category 3: 2933 (more weakly implicitly support)
Category 4: 8261 (neutral)
Category 5: 53 (more weakly implicitly reject)
Category 6: 15 (implicitly reject)
Category 7: 10 (explicitly reject)
Total: 12271
(65 + 934 + 2933) / (65 + 934 + 2933 + 53 + 15 + 10) = 98%. (This was rounded down to 97% in Cook's paper due to rejecting some of the above abstracts from the calculation.)

But notice the included abstracts are in total, less than the neutral abstracts by a factor of 2!

In conclusion: only 65 of the total 12,271 abstracts actually explicitly endorsed AGW. Yet by his manipulation of statistics, he concluded 97% of all scientists support AGW.

Here is the real statistic, using his assessment of abstracts (not even the papers): (65 + 934 + 2933) / 12,271 = 32% that either explicitly (65 / 12,271 = 0.5%) or implicitly (934 + 2933) / 12,271 = 31.5%) support. Therefore 100% - 32% = 68% do not either explicitly or implicitly support.

Go do your own research instead of blithely accepting anything that matches your own preconceived conceptions.
However, I do not expect you to do this because (a) you don't do math and (b) you don't do your own research and (c) you reject anything that does not reinforce your preconceptions.

However, for the rest of the readers of this site, the above information may be helpful to you.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 21-Apr-19 20:38 by Race Jackson.

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Subject Views Written By Posted
Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 1369 grangram 20-Apr-19 14:38
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 189 Archaic 20-Apr-19 15:15
It's not a matter of personal opinion 187 drrayeye 20-Apr-19 15:43
Re: It's not a matter of personal opinion 230 Archaic 20-Apr-19 16:00
I'm sure your opinion 168 drrayeye 20-Apr-19 17:00
Re: I'm sure your opinion 137 Archaic 20-Apr-19 21:31
Re: I'm sure your opinion 164 Eddie Larry 20-Apr-19 21:34
Re: I'm sure your opinion 134 Archaic 20-Apr-19 21:39
Re: I'm sure your opinion 128 Eddie Larry 20-Apr-19 21:50
Re: I'm sure your opinion 132 Archaic 21-Apr-19 03:07
Re: I'm sure your opinion 124 Eddie Larry 21-Apr-19 04:08
Re: I'm sure your opinion 116 Racho 22-Apr-19 03:29
Re: I'm sure your opinion 119 Eddie Larry 22-Apr-19 19:31
Re: I'm sure your opinion 116 Racho 22-Apr-19 19:37
Re: I'm sure your opinion 112 Eddie Larry 22-Apr-19 20:05
Don't forget the Lord 125 drrayeye 22-Apr-19 23:13
Re: Don't forget the Lord 123 Racho 23-Apr-19 20:35
or "Galileo" Perry on global warming 106 drrayeye 23-Apr-19 21:00
Re: I'm sure your opinion 113 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:10
Re: I'm sure your opinion 118 muppedo 09-May-19 00:21
Re: I'm sure your opinion 108 Archaic 10-May-19 11:24
Canadian Firefighters see things differently 145 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 02:21
Re: Canadian Firefighters see things differently 171 Archaic 27-Apr-19 02:29
Maybe you could take up canoeing? 150 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 04:31
Re: Maybe you could take up canoeing? 123 Archaic 29-Apr-19 12:42
Here ya go one science guy plus 96 others 102 grangram 08-May-19 16:29
Re: Here ya go one science guy plus 96 others 104 Archaic 10-May-19 11:27
What are your qualifications? 106 grangram 13-May-19 09:14
Re: What are your qualifications? 102 Archaic 13-May-19 11:17
argumentation--ad nauseum 88 drrayeye 13-May-19 17:54
Re: argumentation--ad nauseum 97 Archaic 25-May-19 03:12
Countermeasures 68 drrayeye 26-May-19 01:56
Just a little rain? Just tell them that in Nebraska. 153 grangram 27-Apr-19 08:52
Re: Just a little rain? Just tell them that in Nebraska. 125 Archaic 29-Apr-19 12:44
Countermeasures 93 drrayeye 03-May-19 19:26
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 199 grangram 20-Apr-19 17:25
How to Lie with Statistics 132 Race Jackson 20-Apr-19 19:32
You should know better 128 drrayeye 21-Apr-19 05:43
Wrong, wrong, and ignorantly wrong because you refuse to do your own research 126 Race Jackson 21-Apr-19 20:36
Superficial as usual 115 drrayeye 21-Apr-19 21:52
The North West Passage? 125 grangram 26-Apr-19 14:39
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 141 Archaic 20-Apr-19 21:32
Just ask Donald Trump 155 drrayeye 21-Apr-19 05:46
Re: Just ask Donald Trump 100 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:11
Wrong question 99 drrayeye 26-May-19 15:14
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 120 Race Jackson 22-Apr-19 05:20
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 117 Warwick 22-Apr-19 19:25
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 128 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:19
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 129 Lee McGiffen 21-Apr-19 04:21
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 110 Redwood1 21-Apr-19 23:44
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 114 Redwood1 21-Apr-19 23:46
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 111 Redwood1 21-Apr-19 23:50
When we were Republican and smart in SOCAL 110 drrayeye 22-Apr-19 02:37
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 103 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:20
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 169 grangram 26-Apr-19 17:39
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 82 harryL 13-May-19 10:24
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 139 Redwood1 22-Apr-19 00:08
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 134 Eddie Larry 22-Apr-19 01:33
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 109 Archaic 23-Apr-19 21:25
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 123 Eddie Larry 23-Apr-19 22:24
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 128 Archaic 23-Apr-19 22:38
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 113 Eddie Larry 23-Apr-19 22:46
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 111 Archaic 23-Apr-19 23:30
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 109 Eddie Larry 23-Apr-19 23:33
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 112 Archaic 24-Apr-19 01:10
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 141 Eddie Larry 24-Apr-19 01:18
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 142 Archaic 24-Apr-19 01:30
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 112 Eddie Larry 24-Apr-19 02:33
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 127 Archaic 24-Apr-19 02:42
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 122 Eddie Larry 24-Apr-19 02:47
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 140 Lee McGiffen 22-Apr-19 03:49
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 145 Brian Patterson 22-Apr-19 04:15
He's Australian 119 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 01:48
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 130 ldennyjr 27-Apr-19 21:06
Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 148 grangram 27-Apr-19 21:50
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 122 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 14:11
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 122 drrayeye 28-Apr-19 15:28
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 122 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 17:58
Why didn't you answer the question ? 142 grangram 28-Apr-19 15:37
Re: Why didn't you answer the question ? 135 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 17:47
still didn't answer the questions. 133 grangram 28-Apr-19 20:50
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 96 ldennyjr 29-Apr-19 02:18
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 90 drrayeye 29-Apr-19 05:11
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 105 ldennyjr 29-Apr-19 12:06
Better than Rip Van Winkle 95 drrayeye 29-Apr-19 16:38
Re: still didn't answer the questions. 100 Eddie Larry 29-Apr-19 16:45
and some beans 94 drrayeye 29-Apr-19 19:01
sweet dreams! 91 grangram 30-Apr-19 16:01
Re: sweet dreams! 92 ldennyjr 04-May-19 13:26
Re: Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota to declare states of emergency. 105 Archaic 28-Apr-19 16:20
glad you posted 103 grangram 28-Apr-19 17:53
Re: glad you posted 136 Archaic 29-Apr-19 12:50
So your a nurse then? 99 grangram 29-Apr-19 13:24
Re: So your a nurse then? 102 Archaic 30-Apr-19 11:39
Progrssivism is a religion??? 101 grangram 30-Apr-19 14:07
Re: Progrssivism is a religion??? 99 Archaic 01-May-19 20:58
Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 110 drrayeye 01-May-19 21:10
Re: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 132 Archaic 02-May-19 00:55
Re: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 118 grangram 08-May-19 13:35
Re: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors 101 Archaic 10-May-19 11:29
Opinion books 104 drrayeye 27-Apr-19 22:24
Re: Opinion books 121 ldennyjr 28-Apr-19 03:01
A great place to start 130 drrayeye 28-Apr-19 04:57
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 104 muppedo 03-May-19 22:31
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 97 ldennyjr 04-May-19 18:50
CO2 is a marker, not a cause 100 drrayeye 04-May-19 20:56
Re: CO2 is a marker, not a cause 86 ldennyjr 05-May-19 03:59
That's because 90 drrayeye 05-May-19 05:45
Re: That's because 92 ldennyjr 05-May-19 13:35
I gave you two links 85 drrayeye 05-May-19 14:18
Re: I gave you two links 99 ldennyjr 05-May-19 16:55
If you would have said that 30 years ago, 94 drrayeye 06-May-19 00:41
Re: If you would have said that 30 years ago, 88 WhoWeird 06-May-19 02:08
Re: If you would have said that 30 years ago, 88 drrayeye 06-May-19 05:29
Re: If you would have said that 30 years ago, 92 Archaic 10-May-19 11:48
Re: I gave you two links 88 Archaic 10-May-19 11:46
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 114 Lee McGiffen 05-May-19 05:56
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 101 ldennyjr 05-May-19 13:27
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 114 ldennyjr 09-May-19 16:39
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 93 muppedo 09-May-19 23:38
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 95 ldennyjr 10-May-19 02:57
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 87 muppedo 11-May-19 22:37
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 91 ldennyjr 12-May-19 18:41
At least you're honest 87 drrayeye 12-May-19 22:32
Re: At least you're honest 84 WhoWeird 12-May-19 22:34
Mike's law 93 drrayeye 12-May-19 22:58
Re: Mike's law 96 WhoWeird 12-May-19 23:44
Re: Forget Brexit and Focus on Climate Change 100 Archaic 10-May-19 11:50
My Apple Pie advice 123 drrayeye 30-Apr-19 21:35
Re: My Apple Pie advice 115 Archaic 02-May-19 01:00
Re: My Apple Pie advice 119 drrayeye 02-May-19 03:50
UK Parliament declares climate change emergency 117 drrayeye 02-May-19 00:07
Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 104 grangram 08-May-19 10:03
Garbage 115 drrayeye 08-May-19 13:38
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 99 muppedo 09-May-19 00:17
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 100 drrayeye 09-May-19 06:00
LOL 106 Sirfiroth 09-May-19 13:38
Just because Roy Spencer 100 drrayeye 09-May-19 17:30
If you would bother to read, you might find out 122 Sirfiroth 09-May-19 19:23
I live in California 97 drrayeye 09-May-19 23:06
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 101 muppedo 09-May-19 23:56
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 105 drrayeye 10-May-19 05:28
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 107 grangram 09-May-19 16:25
Re: Extinction problems? Time to rebel? 128 Archaic 10-May-19 12:33
No nuclear--no problem 93 drrayeye 11-May-19 13:48
Re: No nuclear--no problem 95 Archaic 12-May-19 23:04
Not everyone 87 drrayeye 12-May-19 23:28
Re: Not everyone 108 Archaic 12-May-19 23:33
Re: Not everyone 90 molder 13-May-19 10:11
Re: Not everyone 116 Archaic 13-May-19 11:25
Re: Not everyone 116 harryL 13-May-19 12:02
Re: Not everyone 110 drrayeye 15-May-19 03:20
Britain's first climate refugees 85 drrayeye 19-May-19 04:37
Climate Change and Brexit 91 drrayeye 25-May-19 00:14
UK and Trump miles apart on climate change 128 drrayeye 03-Jun-19 03:31


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