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Hi Ivano,

yes indeed, the tide of argument is shifting again upon the date of Thera, and it does look as if the Old Vs young debate is going to be resolved especially if the single year radiocarbon measurements showing an error in the radiocarbon calibration curve is independently replicated. In this case it will mean that the radiocarbon dates are too old, and that the real dates are closer to the archaeological date interpretations. But the research does not run smoothly. Unfortunately the radiocarbon ages of Theran artefacts now lie upon a radiocarbon plateau, so while we are likely more accurate with the calibrated date, we will have lost precision, due to the larger uncertainty in the calibrated date due to the plateau effect.

To illustrate what I mean, if we look at the current IntCal radiocarbon curve and do a wiggle match for the buried Olive branch we get a 2 sigma range of 1626-1605 BC date range for the eruption, using single year radiocarbon claibration curve of Pearson et all (the one that shows that IntCal13 may be in error), the same wiggle match of the Olive branch produces a 2-sigma range of 1610-1567 BC (the figure below summarises how the different radiocarbon dates change). So you can see that in this example, the precision changes from 21 years to 43 years i.e. the uncertainty in the date has effectively doubled despite the possibility that the date is more accurate i.e. the true date is covered by the uncertainty range.



But fun and interesting times ahead I think.

Jonny

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Subject Views Written By Posted
When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 963 JonnyMcA 18-Feb-19 15:20
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 92 Susan Doris 18-Feb-19 17:42
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 89 JonnyMcA 19-Feb-19 15:41
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 89 Susan Doris 20-Feb-19 06:16
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 79 Aine 21-Feb-19 20:18
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 70 JonnyMcA 22-Feb-19 11:19
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 85 Eddie Larry 18-Feb-19 22:12
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 74 Vanya 22-Feb-19 11:17
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 72 JonnyMcA 22-Feb-19 11:34
Re: When did Thera erupt? Probably not in the 17th century BC. 109 Vanya 22-Feb-19 12:20


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