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>>But a the end, a relevant fact remains: on december 11th 1941 the Americans achieved their first victory at war, although it has been almost forgotten or little considered. Anyway, as far as the Japanese didn't achieve a complete success in the first year of war, they had little hope of winning the war against a great industrial power as the USA, as predicted by Admiral Yamamoto.

Hello

First off,....in no way do the below debate points actually change the final outcome of the war,
unless Japan gets working nukes before US does : )

When you study the devastating carnage the Japanese Long Lance Torpedo wrought in the early part of the Pacific war,
one wonders why the Japanese did not exploit this great leverage more broadly and often in numeric.

Granted....the Long Lance has its problems,
even exploding in torpedo racks from near concussion/pressure wave events.

Japanese commanders changed firing doctrines concerning the type 93 and gunfire salvo's

It has been shown via the battles of Leyte Gulf that the Japanese struggled with intership and inter task group communications.
ships at one end of an attack column struggled to know what the other was doing.

with this serious problem still occuring in 1944,
it is to be pondered if the Japanese paid attention to real time battle result intelligence and estimations.

they should have had a good idea the Long Lance was effective,
so...employ more...and fire often.

IJN cruisers even had type 93 torpedo tubes.
DD,SUB and Cruiser....all Type 93 capable.

hypothetical:

Repeated turns of attrition finds the USN losing in battle as type 93's sink or severly damage ships.
at some point....the numeric of available heavy and light cruisers turns in Japans favor.
they have time now....before the newer built ships in US yards arrive.

position:

Seed the Panama canal exit zone in depth arcs with all 3 type 93 combatants,
establish support islands for resupply and repair.

the action is offensive.....the 3 capable class's will travel grids and attack anything headed to Pearl,out of,...
or US westcoast.

Japan would lose ships in attrition turns aswell,
possibly via long range aircraft.

For the next years,...unless the US was able to break the Panama exit death trap,
Japan could redeploy assets to attack Pearl harbor again,
with the attack package to focus on airfields and naval yards....oil storage,

reduce Pearl harbor from being an effective builder/repair yard.

US now has to focus on getting ships out from the westcoast.

As time flows.....the Japanese would have experience in layered interception tactics,...
able to take on ships exiting the west coast.
Japan would lose ships due to long range airpower.

had the above occured,.....Japan would not need to garrison and expend resources/capital on Islands in the Pacific to the numeric they were in WW-2.
they would have had command of the Pacific sea,
and time to improve Type 93,
improve airpower,...possibly even adopt the US jeep carrier format.

The above hypotheticals work if Japan is pre emptive and willing to risk battle encounters in defined places.

it also gives them 2 years to build more subs, and modify existing warships to more advanced technology......like search radars.

Japans failure at Pearl Harbor to destroy the oil tank farms displays their lack of insight.
the idea was to limit USN's fleet movement.
had they destroyed the tank farms,
all the US could do was run tankers out from the westcoast and via Panama.
there is not many ships in early 1942 for this in the USN.
they are easy kills for type 93

Japan really flubbed it in 1942......what were they thinking.

regards

T Bird



Post Edited (03-Apr-11 04:58)

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Subject Views Written By Posted
Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 927 Titus Livius 02-Apr-11 12:19
Re: Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 393 Avatar 02-Apr-11 14:49
Re: Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 379 Hoppy 02-Apr-11 15:17
Re: Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 273 Titus Livius 02-Apr-11 16:40
Re: Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 364 Eddie Larry 02-Apr-11 15:18
Re: Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 291 Titus Livius 02-Apr-11 16:22
Re: Japan - missed opportunities 382 Thunderbird 03-Apr-11 04:53
Re: Japan - missed opportunities 317 Titus Livius 03-Apr-11 09:38
Re: Japan - missed opportunities 260 Thunderbird 04-Apr-11 04:32
Re: Japan - missed opportunities 294 Titus Livius 04-Apr-11 08:43
A few final thoughts 288 Titus Livius 05-Apr-11 10:54
Re: Battle of Wake, 1941: an alternative history episode 571 Pete Vanderzwet 05-Apr-11 14:26


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